Kenya Track Survey puts Kasarani MP Karauri ahead in the Nairobi gubernatorial race

In the latest Kenya Track Survey, Kasarani Member of Parliament Ronald Karauri has emerged with 48 per cent voter support in the race for the Nairobi gubernatorial seat ahead of the 2027 General Election, placing him 16 percentage points ahead of his closest competitor, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who commands 32 per cent.

The survey, conducted between November 1 and November 9, 2026, places the two legislators at a combined 80 per cent of declared voter preference, underscoring their prominence in the emerging contest for the Nairobi City County governorship.

Geoffrey Mosiria, a county public servant, secured 8 per cent, followed by Embakasi North MP James Gakuya at 5 per cent, while incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja registered 3 per cent. Another 4 per cent of respondents remained undecided.

According to the survey’s accompanying analysis, Karauri’s performance was associated with growing voter expectations for more robust institutional oversight, efficient county administration and greater accountability in the utilisation of public resources.

His support was linked to expectations that his parliamentary experience could translate into more structured supervision of county departments, the expeditious implementation of stalled infrastructure projects and improved transparency in public expenditure.

The findings further suggested that residents grappling with persistent municipal challenges, including inconsistent waste collection, inadequate drainage infrastructure and deteriorating neighbourhood roads, were increasingly prioritising measurable service delivery and accountable management of county affairs.

For small-scale traders and commuters, the survey identified efficient municipal services, improved infrastructure and a more responsive county administration as important considerations in evaluating prospective leadership.

Babu Owino, who commands 32 per cent, maintained a substantial share of voter preference, with his appeal attributed to youth-oriented advocacy, grassroots mobilisation and emphasis on economic empowerment.

The survey analysis associated his support with concerns among young people, informal sector operators and small business owners over unemployment, the rising cost of living, access to business premises, licensing requirements and opportunities for enterprise development.

However, the findings also identified the transition from political advocacy to executive administration as an important consideration, particularly regarding budgetary discipline, institutional management and equitable distribution of services across Nairobi’s 85 wards.

Geoffrey Mosiria, who recorded 8 per cent, was associated with visible engagement in urban sanitation, environmental cleanliness and responses to public complaints.

His profile, according to the survey analysis, resonates with residents who prioritise practical interventions in municipal management, particularly the maintenance of public spaces and improvement of neighbourhood sanitation.

The analysis further indicated that expanding his appeal would require a comprehensive countywide development framework addressing healthcare, road infrastructure, revenue administration and other critical municipal functions.

Embakasi North MP James Gakuya secured 5 per cent, with his support attributed to constituency-level engagement, grassroots accessibility and experience in community development initiatives.

The survey identified the need to articulate a broader development agenda covering public transportation, healthcare, urban infrastructure and economic development as an important consideration in extending his political appeal beyond his constituency.

Meanwhile, incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja registered 3 per cent, with the survey analysis linking the result to concerns over the performance of municipal services and the administration of county affairs.

Issues surrounding road maintenance, access to healthcare, waste management and the general efficiency of county operations were identified as areas of public concern.

The findings suggested that the incumbent’s political standing would be influenced by his administration’s ability to demonstrate tangible development outcomes, address existing service delivery gaps and restore public confidence in county governance.

Despite the distribution of support among the leading names, the 4 per cent undecided category presents an additional dimension to the emerging contest. The survey analysis indicated that these voters were yet to make firm decisions as they awaited clearer policy proposals, party nomination outcomes, campaign commitments and public engagements among prospective candidates.

Beyond individual candidates, the survey identified infrastructure and public transport, waste management, sanitation, healthcare and youth economic empowerment as central issues likely to shape Nairobi’s 2027 gubernatorial contest.

On infrastructure, residents’ priorities included road maintenance, congestion management and effective drainage systems, while waste management remained a significant concern, particularly regarding reliable garbage collection and the maintenance of clean public spaces.

Healthcare provision also featured prominently, with access to adequately equipped, properly staffed and well-resourced county health facilities identified as an important consideration.

For young people and informal sector operators, affordable business permits, transparent market allocations, improved access to trading spaces and sustainable employment opportunities were among the issues expected to feature prominently in the political discourse.

Kenya Track Survey said the findings were based on a sample of 2,381 adult respondents aged 18 and above drawn from across Nairobi County.

The sample comprised 53 per cent female and 47 per cent male respondents, with 58 per cent drawn from urban areas and 42 per cent from peri-urban and rural settings across the county’s wards.

Data was collected through telephone interviews and targeted online polling, using random sampling weighted according to population size. The survey reported a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level.

The findings provide an early assessment of voter preferences ahead of the 2027 General Election, with party nominations, political realignments, campaign platforms and the candidates’ respective development propositions expected to feature in the unfolding competition for Nairobi’s top county leadership position.

Candidate| Position / Profile| Voter SupportRonald Karauri| MP, Kasarani| 48�bu Owino| MP, Embakasi East| 32%Geoffrey Mosiria| Chief Officer / Public Servant| 8%James Gakuya| MP, Embakasi North| 5%Johnson Sakaja| Incumbent Governor, Nairobi| 3%Undecided| —| 4%

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