December petrol relief in sight, but diesel users could pay more

MOTORISTS planning December trips could get some relief at the pumps, with early fuel price data pointing to a petrol decrease of more than R2 a litre even after government scales back its temporary tax discount.

The outlook is less encouraging for diesel users, who could still face increases despite an improvement in international fuel costs.

The Central Energy Fund’s daily fuel price report dated November 10 records an average over-recovery of about R2.97 a litre for 95 unleaded petrol and R2.69 for 93 unleaded over the review period so far, which began on October 30.

For diesel, the figures show an over-recovery of about 80c a litre for 500ppm and R1.16 for 50ppm.

An over-recovery means the fuel cost built into the current price is higher than the average calculated cost over the period, creating room for a decrease.

However, those figures are only one part of the December price calculation.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced the temporary fuel levy relief in his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on October 21.

From November 4 to December 1, the general fuel levy is reduced by R1.50 a litre for petrol and R3 for diesel.

For the following period, ending on January 5, 2027, the discounts shrink to R1 for petrol and R1.50 for diesel.

That effectively adds 50c a litre to petrol and R1.50 to diesel compared with November’s levy levels.

Subtracting that loss of relief from the November 10 over-recoveries gives the following provisional picture:

These are calculations based on the CEF figures and announced levy changes, rather than official December price adjustments. They assume no other changes to the price structure.

If the indicated decrease materialises, buying 50 litres of 95 unleaded would cost roughly R123 less than at November’s price – welcome breathing room for motorists budgeting for holiday travel.

But the eventual saving will depend on the remainder of the pricing period and any other adjustments announced by government.

South Africa’s basic fuel price reflects the cost of importing refined fuel, including international product prices, shipping-related costs and the rand-dollar exchange rate. Taxes, levies, margins and transport charges are then added.

Changes to those domestic components, including the slate levy used to balance accumulated fuel cost recoveries, can also affect the final adjustment.

The next regular monthly adjustment is expected on Wednesday, December 2. Until the official announcement, the figures remain an early indication.

Diesel users should also bear in mind that the regulated adjustment applies to wholesale prices. Actual diesel pump prices vary between filling stations.