The ANC Hits Its Lowest Point at the Local Ballot

Ask AI 3minAfrican National Congress Secretary General Fikile Mbalula speaks to the media at the Gallagher Convention Centre in Midrand, reflecting on the party's poor performance in the local government elections.

The slide has been steady. The ANC won about 54% in the 2016 local elections, and in 2021 it dropped to 46%, the first time it failed to clear half the vote in a countrywide election. It then won 40.2% in the 2024 national poll. The latest result is a further fall of nearly ten points on that.

The ANC remains the largest party, and the IEC’s numbers show how much that is worth. It won outright majorities in 53 municipalities and led in 128, on a turnout of about 52% of 29.2 million registered voters. Hung councils rose to 142 from 70 in 2021.

The campaign also had a stumble. The Constitutional Court had to reinstate 181 ANC councillor candidates after the party missed the IEC’s candidate submission deadline. A party that cannot meet a filing date is hard pressed to argue it has its house in order.

The cities, where most of the economy and the loudest service delivery complaints sit, delivered the harshest verdict. The ANC failed to finish first in six of the eight metros. The DA led in five, and the MK Party became the largest party in eThekwini. The ANC’s one metro lead was Buffalo City, where it fell short of a majority.

In Gauteng, the DA led Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni in provisional counts, none of which it previously controlled outright. Partial results had the ANC running third in Johannesburg, where it won 33.6% in 2021. In Tshwane, ActionSA emerged as the DA’s main challenger. 

Cape Town was the exception to coalition arithmetic. It was the only metro to hand a single party an outright majority, and that party was the DA. Across the Western Cape, the DA took 53.7% of the ward vote against 14.6% for the ANC.

Reading motives into a ballot is risky, but the geography is hard to ignore. The ANC lost most heavily where voters live with failing water, electricity and refuse services, and where coalition governments have collapsed repeatedly. The state itself acknowledged the instability. Cabinet drafted the Municipal Structures Amendment Bill, introduced in August, in response to the no-confidence motions and factionalism that followed earlier coalitions. Analysts such as Richard Calland have argued that political fragmentation will reshape the metros.

The ANC’s rural base held better than its urban one. The party stayed on top in provinces such as Limpopo, where it polled 54% on the ward ballot, and the Eastern Cape, where it won 45.2%. The movement now draws its strength from the countryside while losing the cities that set the national mood.

The harder work starts now. Coalition negotiations have proved unstable in cities such as Johannesburg and Tshwane. President Cyril Ramaphosa has already warned parties ahead of the talks. With seven of eight metros needing partners, mayors will be chosen by deals, and deals can be undone by a single vote of no confidence.

For voters the question is not who won the percentage but who can keep a council running for five years. Parties that cannot answer it will find the next election, in 2029 nationally and 2031 locally, less forgiving than this one.

**The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL.

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