Nigeria Faces Fresh Power Crisis as Dry Season Threatens Electricity Supply

According to a report by the Guardian, Nigeria’s electricity sector faces the risk of deeper power crisis as the dry season approaches, threatening to erase modest improvements recorded during the rainy season and exposing longstanding weakness in electricity generation, funding, and gas supply.

Despite the operation of more than 20 power generation companies, electricity output has remained largely stagnant. After rising slightly from an average of 3,823.66 megawatts (MW) in April to 3,849.60MW in August, generation declined to 3,549.02MW in November, raising concerns about the sustainability of power supply as hydroelectric dams begin to experience lower water levels.

Managing Director of Azura powerPlant, Edu Okeke, warned that electricity supply often appears to improve during the rainy season because dams operate at higher capacity while cooler temperatures reduce electricity demand. He said the situation changes significantly during the dry season when water levels fall, hydropower output declines, and demand for cooling rises.

According to Okeke, this seasonal pattern creates the misleading impression that structural challenges in the power sector have been resolved when the underlying generation deficit remains largely unchanged. He noted that thermal power plants, which depend heavily on natural gas, continue to face operational and financial constraints.

The sector’s liquidity crisis remains a major challenge. Although the Federal Government has paid about ₦1.23 trillion from more than ₦4 trillion in legacy debts owed to generation companies through bond issuances, industry obligations continue to grow. The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission estimates that more than ₦1.5 trillion is added annually to the debt burden owed to power producers.

Data from the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Company showed that between January and April 2026, electricity generation companies were owed approximately ₦491 billion for power supplied to the grid. During the same period, gas suppliers received only ₦60 billion out of ₦142 billion owed for gas deliveries, leaving an unpaid balance of about ₦82 billion.

Industry stakeholders warn that the growing debts could affect the willingness and ability of gas producers to continue supplying fuel to thermal power plants, potentially worsening electricity shortages as the dry season progresses.

Experts say the figures highlight a deeper weakness within the electricity market, where installed generating capacity alone is insufficient if companies across the power value chain are not paid for services rendered. They caution that unresolved disputes over gas supply availability and transportation constraints could further complicate efforts to improve generation and stabilize power supply nationwide.

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