EPRA Dilemma: Why the 15% Drop in International Oil Prices Might Not Give Kenyans Cheap Fuel

Global crude oil prices have plummeted by nearly 15 per cent in a single week, sparking intense discussions across Kenya ahead of the upcoming monthly fuel price review.

According to the latest monetary report from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), Murban crude oil dropped to USD 94.04 per barrel on November 5, down from USD 110.46 just seven days prior.

This sharp decline of USD 16.42 per barrel comes at a crucial time. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) is scheduled to announce its next maximum pump prices on November 14, 2026.

Market analysts attribute the global price plunge to geopolitical shifts. Easing anxieties followed the recent US midterm elections, alongside fading concerns over immediate oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Concurrently, Brent crude futures registered a weekly drop of roughly 17 per cent, settling near USD 97.55 per barrel. This represents the steepest weekly decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Despite these dramatic drops in the global market, Kenyan motorists are being urged to manage their expectations for immediate relief at the local pump.

EPRA Director General Edward Kinyua noted that international fluctuations do not instantaneously dictate domestic pricing. Because Kenya imports fully refined petroleum products rather than raw crude, a lag invariably exists.

Local pricing formulas rely heavily on the actual “landed cost” of these refined shipments, alongside freight charges, port handling fees, and domestic pipeline tariffs.

Furthermore, heavy statutory taxes and regulatory levies form a substantial fixed chunk of what consumers pay per litre, insulated from global market shifts.

On a positive note, the Kenyan Shilling has maintained its ground, holding steady at KSh 129.96 against the US Dollar. This currency stability prevents additional exchange-rate shocks on oil procurement.

As the November 14 deadline approaches, all eyes remain fixed on EPRA. Consumers hope the regulatory body balances global market advantages against local logistical realities to offer some relief to the public.

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