IMF gives green light to Ghana’s first PCI review, subject to board approval

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ghana on the first review of the country’s 36-month programme under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), describing the country’s economic performance as broadly satisfactory.

The agreement marks an important step in the government’s efforts to consolidate recent economic gains and sustain fiscal and structural reforms. However, it remains subject to approval by IMF Management and the Fund’s Executive Board.

In a statement issued after a mission to Ghana from October 22 to November 4, 2026, the IMF said most of the quantitative targets under the first review had been met, while progress on structural reforms remained encouraging.

The IMF team, led by its Mission Chief to Ghana, Ruben Atoyan, reported that Ghana’s economy grew by 6.2 per cent year-on-year during the first half of 2026, with full-year growth projected at 5.7 per cent.

Inflation also declined to 5.5 per cent in October, while the country’s fiscal position remained strong, with the primary surplus on track to meet the programme’s end-year target. Public debt has also declined significantly in recent years.

Despite the positive assessment, the Fund raised concerns about the recent decline in Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves, urging the authorities to strengthen reserve buffers and maintain greater exchange rate flexibility.

It acknowledged corrective measures, including transferring foreign exchange intermediation from the Bank of Ghana to the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) and increasing gold sale requirements for large-scale mining companies.

The IMF also recognised progress in structural reforms, including parliamentary approval of the new Cocoa Board Act, publication of the Fiscal Strategy Document and the completion of a comprehensive review of customs and excise legislation ahead of schedule.

However, it urged government to complete outstanding reforms, particularly the rollout of the Integrated Tax Administration System, operationalisation of the Fiscal Council and publication of the delayed audit of the Electricity Company of Ghana’s (ECG) collection accounts.

On the 2027 Budget, the Fund said the fiscal plan targets a primary surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP, creating room for priority investments under the government’s New Economy agenda, including job creation and infrastructure development.

It cautioned that strict expenditure controls, competitive procurement and proper assessment of projects would be necessary to protect debt sustainability.

The IMF further identified fluctuations in gold, cocoa and oil prices, geopolitical tensions, domestic debt refinancing requirements and weaknesses in the financial sector as potential risks to Ghana’s economic recovery.

The PCI, unlike the previous Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, does not provide direct financial assistance. Instead, it serves as a framework for monitoring economic policies, supporting reforms and strengthening investor confidence.

The successful completion of the first review, following the required management and Executive Board approvals, would reinforce Ghana’s commitment to maintaining macroeconomic stability and achieving sustainable, inclusive and job-rich growth.

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