What Global InfoAnalytics Has Predicted for NDC and NPP Ahead of 2028 Elections

The National Democratic Congress (NDC) could lose 29 parliamentary seats in the 2028 general elections, according to the first parliamentary seat projection released by research firm Global InfoAnalytics.

The organisation’s Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model estimates that the NDC could win 154 seats in the next election, representing a decline from the 185 seats it secured in the 2024 parliamentary polls.

Despite the projected reduction, the governing party is still expected to retain its parliamentary majority in the 276-member legislature.

The opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP), on the other hand, is projected to improve its parliamentary representation from 88 seats in 2024 to 100 seats in 2028, potentially gaining 12 additional constituencies.

However, the projection leaves 22 constituencies without a definite outcome. Of these, 20 have been categorised as undisclosed, while the remaining two are classified as toss-up seats.

A regional breakdown of the undisclosed constituencies indicates that the Eastern Region has the highest number, with five seats, followed by the Ashanti Region with four.

The Western Region accounts for three undisclosed seats, while the Upper East Region has two.

Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West, Western North and Bono regions each have one constituency yet to be determined.

The two constituencies classified as toss-ups are in the Ashanti and Bono regions.

In terms of the overall parliamentary distribution, the NDC is projected to secure 55.8 per cent of the seats, compared with 36.2 per cent for the NPP.

The 20 undisclosed constituencies represent 7.2 per cent of the total seats, while the two toss-up constituencies account for 0.7 per cent.

The figures point to a potentially tighter parliamentary majority for the NDC in the 2028 elections, should the projections reflect the eventual outcome.

Nevertheless, the projected loss of 29 seats does not represent a definitive forecast of the election results.

The voting preferences in the 20 undisclosed constituencies have not been made public by Global InfoAnalytics, while the two toss-up seats remain too close to call.

Source: https://www.citinewsroom.com/2026/11/ndc-projected-to-lose-29-parliamentary-seats-in-2028-global-infoanalytics/

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