SA challenges Trump’s AGOA decision

South Africa has accused Washington of introducing new issues into trade negotiations after US President Donald Trump notified Pretoria of his intention to withdraw its preferential benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from 1 January 2027.

In its first formal response to the decision on Monday, the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition said South Africa had offered additional concessions to address American concerns, but the US was now raising matters that had not previously formed part of negotiations underway since 2025.

The department said Pretoria had made concessions beyond those offered in 2015, while safeguarding its constitutional obligations, biosecurity requirements and commitments under World Trade Organisation rules.

“It is however unfortunate that the US is now raising new issues that have not been the basis for discussions as part of the negotiations process that commenced in 2025,” the department said.

In a letter dated 28 October, obtained by SABC News, Trump gave President Cyril Ramaphosa dated 28 October 60 days’ notice of his intention to terminate South Africa’s eligibility for AGOA benefits from 1 January 2027.

Trump accused Pretoria of failing to make sufficient progress in combating corruption and removing barriers to American trade and investment. He also claimed that South Africa’s cooperation with governments of concern to Washington threatened US national security and foreign policy interests.

The letter identified agricultural market access, regulatory requirements, investment protections and intellectual property as areas of concern, but did not specify which corruption cases informed the decision or identify the international relationships Washington considered threatening.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed on Monday that Trump had notified Congress and the governments of South Africa and Rwanda of his intention to terminate their AGOA eligibility from 1 January 2027.

Greer said an annual review had found that both countries were engaging in practices inconsistent with the programme’s requirements. In South Africa’s case, Washington cited barriers to American trade and investment, corruption and concerns about US national security and foreign policy interests.

The US has not publicly addressed Pretoria’s allegation that new issues were introduced into the negotiations.

The decision follows months of deteriorating relations between South Africa and the Trump administration over Pretoria’s domestic policies and international positions, including its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. The US notification does not identify that case as a specific ground for exclusion.

As recently as Friday, Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau had expressed confidence that Washington would respond favourably to South Africa’s proposals.

Tau met Greer in September following several rounds of discussions between officials from both countries. He maintained that Pretoria had made substantial efforts to address American concerns.

Three days later, Washington announced its intention to end South Africa’s eligibility.

In Monday’s response, Tau said a resolution would depend on both governments being willing to find common ground.

“This decision does not define the broader relationship between South Africa and the United States, however a solution depends on the willingness of both Parties to find solutions,” he said.

The government said it would assess the consequences for affected industries and provide support on a company-by-company basis, while retaining measures introduced in response to earlier US tariffs.

Its figures show that a smaller proportion of South African exports entered the American market under AGOA in 2025 than in the previous year.

In 2024, approximately 28% of South African exports to the US entered under AGOA, worth $4 billion. By 2025, that share had fallen to about 10%, valued at $1.7 billion.

AGOA exports accounted for roughly 1% of South Africa’s total exports worldwide last year, while approximately 89% of exports to the US entered under ordinary World Trade Organisation most-favoured-nation terms.

The withdrawal of AGOA benefits would not end trade between the two countries. It would remove preferential tariff treatment from qualifying goods, increasing costs for affected exporters and potentially weakening their competitiveness.

Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo has cautioned against treating South Africa’s exclusion as an economic catastrophe, although he acknowledges that individual industries could suffer considerable losses.

In his analysis of the withdrawal, Sihlobocalculated that losing AGOA preferences would add an average tariff of approximately 3.4 percentage points to existing American duties, with the actual increase depending on the product.

South Africa exported an estimated $504 million in agricultural products to the US in 2025, approximately 3% less than the previous year. Exporters had continued trading despite higher tariffs, although some shipments were brought forward during a temporary tariff reprieve.

Sihlobo has argued that South Africa should continue developing alternative agricultural markets, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, without abandoning established relationships with American buyers.

The US accounts for a relatively small proportion of South Africa’s overall agricultural exports, but some producers are considerably more dependent on the American market.

The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa warned on Monday that the loss of AGOA benefits would result in job losses in the Western and Northern Cape, where growers have established orchards specifically to supply American customers.

Association chair Gerrit van der Merwe said it was too early to estimate how many jobs would be affected.

“Entire orchards have been planted specifically for the US market,” he said, warning that producers could not simply redirect their fruit to other destinations because of differing plant-health requirements and consumer preferences.

The association said losing AGOA preferences would expose citrus exports to ordinary American import duties, generally ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 US cents per kilogram, depending on the product and timing.

Mandarins, lemons and grapefruit would face those duties in addition to an existing 12.5% tariff, which applies to citrus varieties other than oranges. Oranges are exempt from that additional tariff but would become subject to ordinary US import duties without AGOA preferences.

The association warned that the additional costs would weaken South African producers’ competitiveness against countries such as Peru and Chile, which benefit from preferential trade agreements with the US.

Automotive manufacturers and other exporters that have benefited from AGOA also face higher costs, although the effect will depend on the tariff treatment of individual products.

The government said it would continue diversifying export markets through the African Continental Free Trade Area and trading partners including India, China, the European Union, the United Kingdom and countries in Southeast Asia.

It said new market opportunities had already been secured for South African citrus, avocados, grapes and apples.

South Africa’s economic relationship with the US extends beyond AGOA. According to the department, bilateral trade reached $28.8 billion in 2025, while more than 600 American companies operating in South Africa support approximately 134,600 jobs.

South Africa also supplies 12 of the 50 minerals regarded as critical by Washington. The department warned that losing AGOA benefits could undermine existing supply chains and South African investments in the US.

AGOA, introduced in 2000, grants qualifying exports from eligible sub-Saharan African countries preferential access to the American market. Eligibility is conditional on governance, economic and trade requirements, including provisions relating to US national security and foreign policy interests.

South Africa says it remains committed to finding a negotiated solution while upholding its constitutional responsibilities, transformation objectives and international obligations.

Washington, meanwhile, has cited Pretoria’s international relationships among its reasons for withdrawing AGOA benefits, without identifying those relationships in Trump’s letter.