Petrol May Rise to ₦1,411 Per Litre in Lagos as Import Costs Increase

Petrol prices in Lagos could reach ₦1,411 per litre in November if freight, insurance and other import-related costs remain high, according to an energy analyst.

The projection was made by Kelvin Emmanuel, Managing Partner of The Energy Consulting Practice, in a report published by Nairametrics on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Emmanuel explained that the cost of transporting physical petrol cargoes had increased, making actual delivery more expensive than prices indicated by futures contracts.

He identified insurance premiums, freight charges and the difference between physical and futures crude oil prices as major factors influencing the estimated increase.

According to his calculation, the projected Lagos price includes an estimated refinery-gate cost of about ₦1,376 per litre, with an additional ₦35 for trucking and related charges.

However, the forecast has attracted disagreement from petroleum marketers.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, described the projected increase as speculative. He said marketers were monitoring market developments and were not considering another price increase at the time of his comments.

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria also expressed doubts about the possibility of another increase, pointing to declining crude oil prices and developments in the Middle East.

The development comes after Dangote Refinery recently reduced its petrol gantry price, raising expectations that filling stations could lower their retail prices.

For Nigerian motorists, the competing developments highlight the uncertainty surrounding petrol pricing in the deregulated downstream market.

Whether prices rise or fall will depend on supply costs, international oil market movements, exchange rates and decisions by individual marketers.

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