NDC to lose 29 seats in 2028 election – Global InfoAnalytics predicts

According to Global InfoAnalytics, its first parliamentary seat projection predicts that the NDC could lose 29 seats in the next parliamentary election.

The Global InfoAnalytics Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model estimates that the governing party could secure 154 seats, representing a decline from the 185 seats it won in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

However, despite the projection, the NDC is expected to retain its parliamentary majority if the estimates materialise.

On the other hand, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) is projected to increase its representation from 88 seats in 2024 to 100 in the next election, potentially gaining 12 additional seats.

Also, Global InfoAnalytics left 22 constituencies without definite projections. Twenty of these have been classified as “not disclosed”, while the remaining two are categorised as toss-ups.

In the regional breakdown of the 20 undisclosed constituencies, the Eastern Region was at the top with five seats, followed by the Ashanti Region with four and the Western Region with three.

The Upper East Region accounts for two undisclosed seats, while Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West, Western North and Bono each have one.

The two constituencies classified as toss-ups are located in the Ashanti and Bono regions, with their projected outcomes remaining uncertain.

However, in percentage terms, the NDC is expected to capture 55.8 per cent of parliamentary seats, while the NPP is projected to secure 36.2 per cent, with the 20 undisclosed constituencies representing 7.2 per cent of the total seats, with the two toss-up constituencies accounting for the remaining 0.7 per cent.

The projections point to a potentially reduced parliamentary majority for the NDC in 2028, with a slight improvement in the NPP’s representation compared to their 2024 performance.

Meanwhile, the figures are estimates generated by Global InfoAnalytics’ MRP model and should not be regarded as a definitive outcome of the 2028 elections.

Also, Global InfoAnalytics has not revealed the projected party preferences in the 20 undisclosed constituencies, while the two toss-up seats remain uncertain.

In other news, the NPP has announced that members seeking to contest its parliamentary primaries ahead of the 2028 general elections will be required to pay GH¢5,000 to formally declare their interest.

According to the NPP, the payment will be part of a new application process being introduced by the party, with its online portal scheduled to open from November 1 to 10, 2026, for prospective parliamentary aspirants to submit their applications.

The party’s General Secretary, Justin Kodua Frimpong, disclosed this during a press briefing on Thursday, October 29, 2026, where he outlined the arrangements for selecting parliamentary candidates for the next general elections.

Under the NPP’s new procedure, interested party members must access the online portal, choose the constituency they intend to contest and complete the declaration of interest process by paying the required GH¢5,000 fee.

Justin Kodua Frimpong explained that the new arrangement forms part of efforts to prepare prospective candidates for the demands of parliamentary leadership.

According to him, the party intends to subject aspirants to rigorous training and capacity-building programmes to equip them with the necessary skills and knowledge ahead of the 2028 elections.

He, however, disclosed that the declaration of interest process will serve as the first stage in the NPP’s preparations to select parliamentary candidates for the upcoming general elections.