2027: Political Tensions Rise As Tinubu, APC Face Growing Rejection In North

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As political activities gather momentum ahead of the 2027 general election, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is increasingly facing signs of resistance in parts of Northern Nigeria, raising questions about the ruling party’s acceptance in a region considered crucial to President Bola Tinubu’s re-election ambition.

From protests in Zamfara to attacks on APC supporters in Katsina and the destruction of campaign materials in Kaduna, recent developments suggest growing dissatisfaction with the ruling party among sections of the northern electorate.

Although these incidents do not necessarily represent a collective rejection of the APC across the North, they have added to concerns about the party’s political standing as opposition forces intensify efforts to challenge its hold on power.

One of the latest demonstrations occurred on Monday in Gusau. In this Zamfara State capital, hundreds of youths staged a protest at the popular Freedom Square, causing heavy traffic gridlock.

The protesters, comprising young men and women, converged on the Freedom Square junction, a major intersection linking key routes within the metropolis.

In a video exclusively obtained by LEADERSHIP, some of the demonstrators were seen wearing white T-shirts bearing the inscription, “TINUBU MUST GO”, while chanting solidarity songs.

The demonstration further highlighted growing expressions of dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration in parts of the North-West.

The Zamfara protest came amid other incidents involving APC campaign activities in the region.

In September, a video showing residents dismantling an APC campaign structure in Kaduna State circulated on social media.

A fact-check by The FactCheckHub on September 4, 2026, established that the video was authentic and showed residents dismantling a wooden campaign structure bearing APC branding, including banners with the image of Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani.

Similarly, on October 28, suspected political thugs attacked APC supporters travelling along the Yashi-Funtua road in Malumfashi Local Government Area of Katsina State, while they were heading to attend the Tinubu-Dikko 2027 campaign flag-off in Funtua.

According to the Katsina State Police Command, the attackers hurled stones at the convoy and passing commercial vehicles, damaging several windscreens and injuring a female passenger.

The police subsequently arrested 14 suspects in connection with the incident.

In another incident in Katsina, police arrested three persons following violence in Yankara, Faskari Local Government Area, where a crowd reportedly blocked a road, threw stones and set a vehicle ablaze after Governor Dikko Radda passed through the community on his way to an APC governorship campaign rally.

Political posters were also burnt during the incident, which the police described as suspected political thuggery.

The incidents have added to concerns about the safety of political campaigns and the possibility of violence as political activities intensify across the country.

Beyond physical attacks and protests, political dissatisfaction has also found expression on social media, where some commentators have linked the growing opposition to the APC in the North to the political influence of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.

Atiku, who contested the 2023 presidential election under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is now associated with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which is positioning itself as a major opposition platform ahead of 2027.

A video showing a large crowd at an Atiku campaign gathering, with participants carrying ADC flags, also generated conversations on X about the former vice-president’s political strength in the North.

Reacting to the video, an X user, @jrnaib2, wrote, “I now understand why they might postpone the election; the fear of Atiku is the reason.”

The post reflects speculation among some social media users that the opposition’s political strength in the North could create pressure on the ruling party ahead of the election.

However, there is no established evidence that the 2027 election is being considered for postponement because of Atiku’s political influence or the APC’s electoral challenges.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has scheduled the presidential and National Assembly elections for January 16, 2027.

Why The North Is Growing Dissatisfied With Tinubu

Speaking with LEADERSHIP, political and economic analyst, Adefolarin Olamilekan, said the growing agitation against the Tinubu administration could be understood from three major perspectives: economic hardship, dissatisfaction over political appointments and the agitation for power to return to the North.

He said, “I think these are usual political characterisations that we normally find in Nigerian politics, which means that the political behaviour of Nigerians normally tends to follow a particular line of agitation, particularly when it comes to candidates.

“Taking a look at the North-South divide and what has really happened in the last three years, the northern rejection or rebellion against the Tinubu government falls into three categories.

“One is about the economic issues. Two is about the political appointments of people from the North, and the third perspective has to do with the North feeling that it is now time for them to also have a shot at the presidency.

“You know, the gentleman’s agreement is that power should rotate between the North and the South. The northern youths and groups feel that it is now time for power to shift back to the North. These are the basic three things that are fundamentally giving rise to the rebellion.

“Talking about the economic hardship, talking about the one-sided appointments, they feel that they have not gotten enough appointments from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. They also believe that power needs to return to the North, in line with the gentleman’s agreement on rotation.”

On whether economic hardship alone explains the growing dissatisfaction, Olamilekan argued that the agitation was also driven by political interests among sections of the northern elite.

He said, “Economically, no region in this country is happy with the economic trajectory of Nigeria right now, and the cost of living and the loss of purchasing power have really affected poor people across the country.

“But that alone will not give the reason why northern youths are rebellious. Rather, it is more or less an agitation coming from certain elites in the North who feel that power needs to return to the North.

“We are not just going to be looking at it from the angle of economic dissatisfaction among northerners. Rather, it is also about power dissatisfaction.

“Some youths and some elites in the North also feel that political power needs to return to the region. It is not just economic hardship alone. The North wants power to return.

“The South feels that the gentleman’s agreement should continue. Let the South have its eight-year run in the presidency, and by 2031, the ticket goes back to the North. But for now, the North is not used to that arrangement. They want to have power in 2027.”

Also speaking with LEADERSHIP, a legal practitioner and political enthusiast, Barrister Anayo Adibe, said the protests against the APC demonstrated one of the fundamental principles of democracy: the right of citizens to reject a government that fails to meet their expectations.

Adibe identified insecurity, out-of-school children and growing poverty as some of the major challenges contributing to dissatisfaction in the North.

He said, “Well, if I’m to look at it from a legal context, it brings to the fore one of the beauties of democracy.

“For a sitting government, for example, to be rejected outright by a certain group of people basically shows you that the government certainly hasn’t met their expectations.

“If you look at the North, for example, and categorise it separately from other parts of the country, you will discover that the North has peculiar challenges.

“One of the most fundamental challenges that the North has been faced with for some time is the issue of security. There’s also the growing rate of children out of school.

“We cannot also rule out the widening poverty gap in the North.

“If a government has had almost four years in power and cannot address any of these issues fundamentally or even head-on, then it basically means that the people are right to reject that government.

“One of the beauties of democracy is that it is the people who have the power because, at the end of the day, they determine who should lead them.

“So, the APC’s rejection or the demonstrations in the North against the APC only tell you that the party seems to have fallen short in meeting the expectations of the people in the North.

“Security has worsened, there are more children out of school, and there are more people who have been thrown into multidimensional poverty today. If the government, after almost four years, hasn’t adequately addressed any of these issues, then the people are right to reject the government.”

Could The Attacks Lead To Postponement Of 2027 Elections?

On whether the protests could affect the 2027 elections or lead to their postponement, Adibe described the demonstrations as a positive development for democracy rather than a threat to the electoral process.

He said, “What it portends, actually, is that, for me, I think it is good for the elections. Yes, the protest is good.

“It portends a very good omen, even for INEC, for example, because it is perhaps going to bring out a litmus test for INEC’s integrity and the credibility of the 2027 elections.

“If the majority of the people have come out and said that they do not want this government, it will be very difficult for the results to turn otherwise.

“So, whether they postpone the elections or they don’t postpone the elections, it is very good that the people need to know that power belongs to them. They are the ones who should determine who should be in power or who should lead them.

“These are, for me, the beauties of democracy.”

However, the National President of the Committee for the Defence of Human Rights (CDHR), Comrade Debo Adeniran, cautioned against interpreting every protest or act of resistance as a genuine reflection of the overall political mood of the North.

Adeniran said political opposition could sometimes influence public perception through the dissemination of information, including misleading narratives, particularly during electioneering periods.

He said, “The fact that everybody, every politician, needs to know is that the reaction of the public to the governance of their state cannot be predicted and cannot be taken for granted.

“I believe that those who think they should support the current administration have their own reasons, and they might have benefited from the kind of governance that is being administered.

“But there are a cross-section of those who will reject the performance of the administration, and knowing that this is an electioneering period, politicians, especially those in the opposition, may want to do everything to discredit the ruling party.

“Even if they have achieved everything they promised when they were elected, the opposition will still find a way of making them look unacceptable to the people.

“Many Nigerians, especially the less educated ones, might be very gullible. They take information from the elites, and these elites who form the political class may deliberately distort information, whether true or not, or half-truths, and pass it directly to the populace to guide them or incite them on how they should react.

“And since many of those involved in political violence are not in the elite class, they are waiting for direction from those they respect. The ruling party cannot determine those they should respect.

“In some cases, no matter what the ruling party says, it will not sink down well with the populace they are governing. That might be what has resulted in the violent attacks on the ruling party in the northern part of the country.”

Adeniran, however, warned politicians against encouraging violence, stressing that political disagreements should be expressed through peaceful and lawful means.

He said, “What one should plead with politicians is that they should not encourage violence because if violence has become a tool of opposition, they should remember that they could also face opposition if they eventually win an election.

“If they have introduced brigandage into opposing the ruling party, the same measure may be administered on them.

“So generally, those of us in the media and civil society should appeal to the Nigerian populace, wherever they come from, whether from the North, East, West or South, to eschew violence in their approach.

“They should communicate their positions clearly in a language that the people they are persuading will understand and ensure that the context is based on ideas and issues of common interest, not selfish interests that can engender degeneracy in the polity.”

The growing political tension has generated speculation on social media about whether the 2027 general election could be postponed, particularly amid claims that the ruling party is concerned about Atiku Abubakar’s political reach in the North.

However, the protests and attacks recorded so far do not, on their own, constitute grounds for postponing a nationwide election.

Under Nigeria’s electoral framework, INEC may postpone an election where a serious breach of the peace is likely or an emergency makes it impossible to conduct the poll, subject to the provisions of the law.

Such a decision must be based on established security or emergency considerations, not the electoral prospects of a political party or candidate.

For now, the incidents in Zamfara, Kaduna and Katsina raise questions about the ability of political parties to conduct peaceful campaigns and mobilise support without intimidation or violence.

More importantly, they present a test for the APC as it seeks to convince northern voters that the Tinubu administration has addressed, or is capable of addressing, the region’s longstanding concerns over insecurity, poverty, education and political representation.

Whether the growing protests translate into electoral rejection at the ballot box remains to be seen. But with the 2027 elections approaching, the ruling party may have to contend with more than the opposition’s political campaigns: it must also confront public dissatisfaction and the demand for better governance.

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