4 Mt Kenya Counties Where Gachagua Could Struggle to Rally Behind the Opposition (Opinion)

Following the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua as the Deputy President of Kenya, he returned to the Mt Kenya region to seek political support from the people. His removal from office generated significant sympathy, helping him gain popularity among many people from the vote-rich region.

Gachagua has since been working to consolidate his support and rally Mt Kenya behind the opposition as efforts intensify to challenge President William Ruto’s re-election bid. However, despite his influence, there are four counties where he could face an uphill task in delivering a majority share of the vote to the opposition.

Although Nakuru is geographically located in the Rift Valley, it is often associated with the Mt Kenya region because of its large Kikuyu population. The county is also home to a significant Kalenjin population, which makes up around 30% of its residents.

Many Kalenjins are perceived to be supportive of President William Ruto. The county also has a sizeable Luo population who majority are supporting seems to be support the president. Communities with swing votes such as the Kisii, Luhya and Maasai have a significant presence and could provide Ruto with additional support.

Furthermore, some Kikuyu leaders from Nakuru, including Governor Susan Kihika and Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui, have positioned themselves on Ruto’s side and may deliver portion of the community’s vote to him.

With these factors at play, it could be difficult for Gachagua to deliver a dominant opposition vote in Nakuru.

Meru, one of the key counties in Mt Kenya East, could also present a major challenge for Gachagua.

Governor Isaac Mutuma, Senator Kathuri Murungi and several elected leaders in the county have aligned themselves with President Ruto and Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. Their presence gives the government side a strong political network on the ground.

Without an equally strong network of political leaders and grassroots mobilizers, Gachagua could struggle to outmanoeuvred the Ruto-Kindiki camp in Meru.

Tharaka Nithi could be another difficult battleground for Gachagua because it is the home county of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki.

Kindiki represented the county as senator for two terms before becoming a Cabinet Secretary and eventually the Deputy President. This gave him a long-standing political connection with residents. His popularity and relationship with local leaders could give the government side an advantage.

Several influential leaders in Tharaka Nithi have also rallied behind Kindiki, presenting him as one of their own. For Gachagua, breaking through this political network and delivering the county to the opposition could therefore prove difficult.

Embu is another Mt Kenya East county where Gachagua could face a tough political contest.

The rivalry between Gachagua and Kindiki was evident during the Mbeere North parliamentary by-election, when the two leaders backed different candidates. Kindiki campaigned for UDA candidate Leonard Wamuthende, while Gachagua supported Newton Karish, who contested on a Democratic Party ticket.

Kindiki’s candidate emerged victorious, highlighting the strength of his political influence in the county. The contest was decided by a narrow margin, and it demonstrated that Gachagua’s support in Embu cannot be taken for granted

As the 2027 General Election approaches, the county could once again become a closely contested battlefield between the two political camps.

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