Two Mt Kenya Gubernatorial Seats that UDA Could Retain in 2027 (Opinion)

Mt Kenya region overwhelmingly voted for President William Ruto in the last General Election. His United Democratic Alliance (UDA) also swept the majority of seats in the region.

However, the party seems to have lost popularity in Mt Kenya following the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) is now taking control of the vote-rich region.

Despite DCP’s growing influence in Mt Kenya, there are some gubernatorial seats in the region that UDA could retain in the upcoming General Election. Two of them are:

The county is located in the former Rift Valley Province, but it is categorised as part of the Mt Kenya region. This is because the Kikuyu, whose roots are in the Mt Kenya region, are the single largest community in the county. The county also has a significant number of Kalenjins, while other communities from different parts of the country form a minority of its population.

The two candidates who have announced their intentions to run for the Nakuru gubernatorial seat are the incumbent, Susan Kihika of UDA, and Senator Tabitha Karanja Keroche of DCP.

Because UDA is strong in Kalenjin land, the community is expected to vote for Kihika overwhelmingly, especially if she is endorsed by President Ruto. Being a Kikuyu, Susan is also likely to get a portion of the community’s votes despite running on a UDA ticket.

On the other hand, Tabitha could get the majority of Kikuyu votes but is unlikely to secure a substantial share of Kalenjin votes. This will disadvantage her against Kihika.

The Embu gubernatorial seat is currently held by Cecily Mbarire, who is seeking a second term in the 2027 polls. Her main competitors are Manyatta MP Gitonga Mukunji and former Senator Lenny Kivuti.

Cecily is the chairperson of UDA, and she is expected to run under the party. On the other hand, Mukunji and Kivuti are vying on DCP and BUS tickets, respectively, and are both allied with the opposition.

The incumbent is likely to secure the majority of votes from government-aligned voters, while her competitors might split opposition supporters between them. This will give Cecily the upper hand in the race.

Secondly, Cecily has the support of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. Last year, Kindiki campaigned for Leonard Wamuthende of UDA in the Mbeere North parliamentary by-election, and he won. Some political observers opined that the outcome was proof that Kindiki has significant influence in Embu and the entire Mt Kenya East region.

Kindiki’s support might also give Cecily an advantage in the race, especially if President Ruto retains the Deputy President as his running mate.

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