South Africa widens economic lead over Nigeria after GDP revision

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Read History Go to My Account Log Out Enhanced by Google Africa South Africa widens economic lead over Nigeria after GDP revision South Africa’s economy is nearly 5 percent larger than previously estimated, widening its lead over Nigeria as sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest

Listen to this article Share South Africa’s economy is nearly 5 percent larger than previously estimated, widening its lead over Nigeria as sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest economy after a revision by Statistics South Africa incorporated previously undercounted economic activity.

The statistics agency said on Thursday that the country’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025 had been revised to 8.04 trillion rand (about $483 billion) , from 7.64 trillion rand under the previous estimates.

The revision puts South Africa further ahead of Nigeria, whose nominal GDP stood at 441.5 trillion naira, equivalent to $328 billion, last year. Nigeria previously ranked ahead of South Africa in dollar terms, but repeated devaluations of the naira have reduced the dollar value of its economic output.

The adjustment follows a benchmarking and rebasing exercise that changed the base year for South Africa’s GDP calculations from 2015 to 2022. The process also updated estimates of economic activity to reflect changes in the structure of the economy and incorporate activities that were previously undercounted or not fully captured.

Statistics South Africa revised its estimate of nominal GDP in 2022 to 6.99 trillion rand, or about $420.19 billion, from 6.67 trillion rand. All 10 sectors tracked by the agency recorded higher output under the new estimates, with mining, finance and trade registering the largest increases.

The updated calculations incorporated previously undercounted activities, including self-generated electricity, e-hailing services, manufacturing and parts of the informal economy. They also accounted for illicit mining and other illegal economic activity, which can be difficult to measure using conventional data collection methods.

GDP rebasing is a routine statistical exercise undertaken by countries to ensure economic estimates better reflect current production patterns, business activity and changes in the composition of their economies. It can alter the measured size of an economy without necessarily indicating that actual production has increased at the time of the revision.

The changes could also improve some of South Africa’s key fiscal indicators by increasing the GDP figure against which public debt is measured.

Johann Els, chief economist at financial services firm PSG, told Reuters that the revisions would make South Africa’s debt figures look better, particularly its closely watched debt-to-GDP ratio, which the government is seeking to reduce.

A lower debt-to-GDP ratio can improve how investors assess a government’s debt burden, although it does not reduce the amount of debt owed. The effect on the ratio will depend on the revised GDP figures and the level of public debt.

The revision reinforces South Africa’s position as the region’s largest economy by nominal dollar value, but the comparison with Nigeria remains sensitive to exchange-rate movements. Nigeria’s naira depreciation has reduced the dollar value of its output, while differences in statistical methods and the timing of rebasing exercises can also affect comparisons between countries.

The latest figures therefore reflect both an updated measurement of South Africa’s economy and the broader challenge of comparing economic performance across countries whose currencies and statistical frameworks differ.

Faith Omoboye is a foreign affairs correspondent with background in History and International relations. Her work focuses on African politics, diplomacy, and global governance.