SA economy almost 5% bigger than estimated, Stats SA finds

South Africa’s economy is almost 5% larger than earlier figures suggested, according to new calculations from Statistics South Africa. The agency has rebased the country’s gross domestic product data using 2022 production patterns, which has lifted the overall size of the economy.

In 2022, GDP at current prices now stands at R7 trillion. This is higher than the previous estimate of R6.7 trillion. The revision means the measured size of the economy has grown by 4.9%. Stats SA said the changes give a clearer picture of how the economy is structured and how different sectors contribute.

Mining recorded one of the biggest shifts. Its contribution to the economy rose by 12.5%. The increase comes mainly from better coverage of illegal mining activities. These activities have grown as the price of gold has climbed in recent years. Officials said the updated data now captures more of this activity that was previously undercounted.

Finance, real estate and business services also saw a notable rise. Their share of the economy increased by 9.1%. Other sectors showed smaller but still positive adjustments. The changes were spread across the economy rather than concentrated in one area.

The unobserved economy, which includes informal and hard-to-measure activities, now accounts for 8.7% of GDP. This is up from 7.3% in the earlier estimates. Stats SA explained that the rebasing process refined how these activities are measured so that the figures better match real production patterns from 2022.

Rebasing is a regular process used by statistics agencies around the world. It updates the base year and the weights given to different industries so that national accounts stay accurate as the economy changes over time. In this case, the new base reflects the structure of production as it stood in 2022.

The higher GDP figure does not mean the economy suddenly grew faster in recent years. Instead, it shows that earlier measurements missed some economic activity. With a larger base, ratios such as government debt to GDP may look slightly more favourable, although the underlying debt levels remain the same. The revised numbers also provide a more complete view of sectors that have expanded outside formal records.

Stats SA released the updated series as part of its ongoing work to improve the quality of economic statistics. The new figures cover the 2022 reference year and will feed into future growth calculations. For now, the data shows that South Africa’s measured economy was larger in 2022 than previously reported, with mining and finance among the sectors that gained the most from the revision.

Source: https://x.com/News24/status/2115785227800862941