Dangote’s rising intake of Nigeria’s crude reduces US appetite by 58%

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Read History Go to My Account Log Out Enhanced by Google Energy Dangote’s rising intake of Nigeria’s crude reduces US appetite by 58% Nigeria’s crude oil shipments to the United States fell 57.8 percent in the first eight months of 2026, as rising

Listen to this article Share Nigeria’s crude oil shipments to the United States fell 57.8 percent in the first eight months of 2026, as rising crude intake at the Dangote refinery and weaker price competitiveness in the US market put pressure on exports.

Data from the US Census Bureau’s international trade report showed that US purchases of Nigerian crude fell to 14.01 million barrels between January and August, down from 33.23 million barrels in the same period of 2025.

BusinessDay’s analysis showed the customs value of US crude imports from Nigeria fell by 49.8 percent to $1.25 billion from $2.50 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.

Sanjana Shivdas, head of West Africa crude pricing at Argus Media, said the decline reflected reduced export availability as more Nigerian crude was consumed at home and weaker arbitrage economics in the US market.

US Energy Information Administration data cited by Shivdas showed imports from Nigeria averaged about 145,000 barrels a day in 2023, 139,000 in 2024 and 135,000 in 2025. Through early October this year, they averaged about 71,000 barrels a day.

Experts said a key factor is the ramp-up of the Dangote refinery, which began processing crude in January 2024 and has steadily raised its intake.

Argus tracking showed crude receipts at the 700,000-barrel-a-day Lekki plant averaged a record 665,000 barrels a day in September, topping the previous high of 660,000 set in June.

“As more Nigerian crude is processed domestically, the local refinery market is absorbing a growing share of production that might otherwise have been available for export,” Shivdas said.

Pricing has also moved against Nigerian sellers.

“The Dated Brent–West Texas Intermediate spread averaged about $5 a barrel in 2024 and $4 in 2025 before widening to around $12 in 2026,” Shivdas said.

The wider gap makes imported light, sweet crude less competitive for US Gulf Coast refiners compared with domestic supply, weakening the incentive to buy Nigerian barrels. Nigerian grades compete with US light, sweet crude and other Atlantic Basin supplies.

“As a result, US refiners have increasingly relied on domestic production and other imported supplies,” Shivdas said. She added that Dangote’s higher intake and the wider spread had accelerated the decline in Nigerian flows to the US.

Muda Yusuf, director and chief executive officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, warned of the risks if Nigeria cannot hold output steady.

“If Nigeria cannot sustain production as competing suppliers return to the market, buyers will naturally diversify their sources,” he said.

Yusuf added that Nigeria must meet forward sales commitments, along with loan obligations taken on to rehabilitate its refineries, among other expenses. Canada remains the largest supplier of crude to the US. It shipped 940.49 million barrels in the first eight months of 2026, about 64.4 percent of total US crude imports of 1.46 billion barrels.

Venezuela supplied 110.97 million barrels over the same period. However, the import figures do not show that Venezuelan shipments directly displaced Nigerian crude.

Venezuela deal In August, the US reached a reported 25-year oil agreement with Venezuela to develop 17 strategic oil fields holding an estimated 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. President Donald Trump said the deal could more than double American oil reserves and lower petrol prices.

Trump said the agreement would “substantially lower gas prices for all Americans”. His administration has faced domestic pressure over rising fuel costs following disruptions to global oil supplies linked to the Iran war.

Delcy Rodríguez, interim president of Venezuela, called the agreement “historic,” saying it would support economic recovery, modernise the oil industry and raise government revenue. She said the deal targets output of 1.5 million barrels a day and could attract more than $100 billion in investment, alongside over $209 billion in tax revenue for Venezuela.

Under the reported arrangement, the US government would keep 55 percent control of a joint venture with a private operator, while Rodríguez said Venezuela’s sovereignty over its natural resources would be preserved.

“It is hard to see how this kind of arrangement would accelerate investment at any material scale,” David Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies, told Reuters, citing political uncertainty, a weak electricity grid and limited export capacity.

Venezuela holds an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven reserves, the world’s largest, but output has fallen sharply from its late-1990s peak because of underinvestment, tighter state control of the national oil company and US sanctions.

Trump has urged American oil companies to invest at least $100 billion to rebuild the country’s oil industry.