Ghana’s Oil Recovery Faces an Investment Test as TEN Stalls

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Ghana’s crude oil production recovered in the first half of 2026, but limited development activity across its producing fields raises questions about whether the improvement can be sustained beyond the immediate performance of new wells at the Jubilee Field.

The Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), in its 2026 Semi-Annual Report, recorded a 11.73% increase in crude oil production to approximately 20.58 million barrels between January and June 2026, up from 18.42 million barrels in the corresponding period of 2025.

The recovery is significant for a sector that has faced declining production since its earlier peak. However, PIAC’s findings also show that the improvement was concentrated in Jubilee, where three new producer wells came onstream, while no drilling or completion activity was undertaken on the Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) and Sankofa Gye-Nyame (SGN) fields during the period.

The contrast points to a wider challenge for Ghana’s upstream petroleum industry: production can improve through interventions at an existing field, but sustained national output depends on continued investment, well performance, maintenance and development across the wider portfolio.

For policymakers, the question is whether the latest recovery represents a durable change in production performance or a temporary improvement that leaves the sector’s underlying investment requirements unresolved.

Jubilee produced approximately 12.82 million barrels in the first half of 2026, a 16.3% increase from the 11.02 million barrels recorded in the same period of 2025.

PIAC attributed the improvement to new producer wells performing above expectations, production optimisation and 99% uptime for the Jubilee floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO).

The committee observed that three new wells—J74-P, J75-P and J76-P—were brought onstream during the period, increasing the field’s average daily production from 57,185 barrels to 85,136 barrels.

“PIAC observes that three new producer wells (J74-P, J75-P and J76-P) were brought onstream on the Jubilee Field during H1 2026, raising the Field’s average daily oil production from 57,185 bbl/d to 85,136 bbl/d, while no drilling or completion activity was undertaken on the TEN and SGN Fields.”

The figures demonstrate how investment in additional wells and operational optimisation can influence production within a relatively short period.

They also highlight the importance of field-level performance: Jubilee’s recovery helped lift the national production total even as activity at the other two producing fields remained limited.

However, the Jubilee result does not remove the need for a wider investment strategy. A field’s output can be affected by reservoir performance, well decline, equipment availability and the pace at which replacement production is brought online.

The sustainability of the recovery will therefore depend on whether the gains from the new wells can be maintained and whether further investment is sufficient to offset natural declines elsewhere.

TEN produced approximately 2.68 million barrels during the first half of 2026, while SGN contributed about 5.07 million barrels.

PIAC’s observation that no drilling or completion activity occurred on either field during the period is significant because national production depends on more than the performance of Jubilee.

The committee has specifically recommended that government, through the Petroleum Commission, stimulate investment in existing producing fields, particularly TEN. It has also called for stronger regulatory and fiscal frameworks and improved data acquisition in new basins.

The recommendation reflects the need to address both immediate production opportunities and the longer-term challenge of replacing declining output.

Investment in existing fields can include drilling additional wells, undertaking workovers, improving recovery and addressing technical constraints.

The appropriate interventions depend on field conditions and commercial assessments, and cannot be determined from production totals alone.

The absence of drilling or completion activity in a six-month period does not automatically mean that no other operational or investment work occurred.

It does, however, make it important for operators and regulators to provide clear information on development plans, expected production contributions and the timing of future activity.

For TEN, the key issue is whether a credible and adequately financed programme can improve field performance and support the wider production outlook.

The production recovery also needs to be separated from the stronger petroleum revenue figures recorded during the same period.

Petroleum receipts increased by 52% to US$561.41 million, while crude production rose by 11.73%. PIAC identified higher achieved crude prices and a 37% increase in corporate income tax collections as major contributors to the revenue increase.

The difference matters because higher prices can improve government receipts without requiring an equivalent increase in physical output. If prices weaken, the revenue benefit may diminish even if production remains stable.

Ghana’s petroleum revenue outlook is therefore exposed to two related risks: declining or inconsistent production and volatility in international crude prices.

A stronger production base would help the country reduce its dependence on favourable price conditions.

It would also support more reliable planning for petroleum revenue allocations, state participation costs and investment in related infrastructure.

The challenge is that upstream development requires substantial capital and long lead times. Exploration, appraisal, development drilling and infrastructure work must be planned well before the resulting production can be counted on to support government receipts.

That makes the quality and timing of investment decisions particularly important. Delayed development activity today can limit the country’s production options in later years.

PIAC reported that GNPC spent approximately US$258,617 on exploration and development projects during the first half of 2026, compared with about US$40,162 in the same period of 2025.

Although that represents a substantial percentage increase, the absolute amount remains modest relative to the scale of Ghana’s longer-term ambition to replenish its upstream resource base.

Of the expenditure, approximately US$250,000 was associated with the Maritime Boundary Special Project, while only about US$9,373 was spent on the Voltaian Basin.

The figures should be interpreted carefully. Spending recorded during a six-month period may not capture all work undertaken under other budget lines, and exploration programmes can involve different phases of expenditure.

Nevertheless, the numbers underline the importance of transparent, updated information on exploration activity and the status of prospective resources.

PIAC stated that it did not receive updated information on several exploration and development activities, including the Voltaian Basin Project, Deepwater Tano/Cape Three Points and the Saltpond Field.

Such information gaps constrain independent assessment of the progress being made to develop future production opportunities.

Without updated project information, it is difficult to determine whether exploration is advancing, what technical milestones have been achieved or when potential resources could contribute to national output.

For Ghana, the objective should be to turn exploration plans into a credible sequence of technical work, investment decisions and development milestones—not simply to announce new prospects.

Ghana’s first-half production improvement is encouraging, particularly because Jubilee’s new wells and operational performance delivered measurable gains. But the report shows that the wider upstream sector still faces an investment challenge.

A durable recovery will require continued attention to existing producing fields, credible development plans for TEN and SGN, stronger regulatory and fiscal arrangements, and better information on exploration activity.

It will also require a realistic assessment of the commercial conditions needed to attract capital. Investors must be able to evaluate the fiscal framework, the regulatory environment, the technical prospects of individual fields and the likely returns from development.

The government and Petroleum Commission must, in turn, ensure that investment commitments translate into measurable work programmes and production outcomes.

PIAC’s findings provide a clear basis for that scrutiny. The increase in output is a positive development, but the longer-term test is whether Ghana can maintain production through sustained investment rather than rely on isolated gains at a single field.

Without a broader and more transparent development pipeline, the current recovery may improve near-term revenue while leaving the country exposed to further production declines in the years ahead.

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