Delay in banks’ 9-month results worries investors

•Experts warn lending may shrink Frustration and concerns are mounting across the Nigerian capital market as leading banks continue to delay the release of their nine-month 2026 financial results, leaving investors without a clear picture of earnings momentum, asset quality and lending activity. Daily Sun investigations at the weekend found out that market participants are particularly worried that lenders’ loan books may contract in the period, as elevated interest rates, tighter risk appetite and ongoing balance-sheet restructuring constrain credit expansion. The delay has also heightened uncertainty around non-performing loans, impairment charges and the sector’s ability to sustain the strong profitability recorded in recent years. Only a handful of institutions, including First HoldCo and Stanbic IBTC, have published 9M 2026 results, while several tier-one banks remain behind their usual reporting timetable. The early results point to divergent trends. First HoldCo reported a 60.8 per cent rise in pre-tax profit to N911.24 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, despite an 8.7 per cent decline in interest income to N2.09 trillion. Its customer loan book stood at N9.39 trillion, up 4.8 per cent year on year, although its non-performing loan ratio rose to 10.4 per cent from 8.5 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025. Stanbic IBTC, by contrast, reported a stronger lending performance. Customer loans rose 9.7 per cent to N2.61 trillion, while total income increased 24.8 per cent to N817.77 billion. Its asset quality remained comparatively stronger, with a non-performing loan ratio of 2.7 per cent as at the first half of 2026, down from 4.7 per cent a year earlier. Investors now await the outstanding disclosures to determine whether any slowdown in lending is confined to individual banks or reflects a broader tightening across the industry. Several tier-one lenders, including Access Holdings, United Bank for Africa, Zenith Bank, GTCO and Fidelity Bank, had yet to release their nine-month results as at the weekend. The delays follow a reporting season already disrupted by postponed half-year audited accounts, with some institutions citing the need to complete audits, obtain regulatory approvals and address outstanding disclosure issues. According to market operators, the situation has created an uneven playing field. They added that the concern is not merely about delayed numbers, but about what the figures may reveal when they eventually arrive. With the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s policy rate still a little elevated and liquidity conditions tight, banks have faced pressure on the cost of funds, while yields on government securities have offered attractive, lower-risk alternatives to lending. Investors’ sell-off wipes N1.96trn off NGXCSCS slashes share restriction fees by 50% to attract more investorsInvestors eye bigger dividends as cement earnings hit N3.9trn Stockbroker, Foresight Securities and Investment Limited, Charles Fakrogha, said, this environment could encourage lenders to deploy more resources into treasury bills, bonds and other government instruments rather than expand credit to households and businesses. “That shift would have broader economic implications. Reduced lending to the real sector could constrain working capital for manufacturers, small businesses and traders, potentially slowing output and employment. It could also weaken the transmission of monetary policy, as businesses that are unable to access affordable credit may struggle to respond to the reset in interest rate”, Fakrogha explained. Vice Chairman, Board of Directors at Highcap Securities, David Adonri, noted that the contrasting results has reinforced concerns that banks with weaker asset-quality positions may become more cautious in extending new credit. “For First HoldCo, the rise in impaired loans could prompt tighter underwriting, higher provisioning and a more selective approach to lending. For Stanbic, the relatively clean book provides greater room to grow its loan portfolio, although management will still need to navigate currency volatility, sector concentration risks and the impact of higher funding costs”, Adonri explained. According to him, investors are also watching the impact of the AMCON levy, which remains a major recurring cost for banks. First HoldCo’s AMCON levy stood at N112.94 billion in 9M 2026, while GTCO’s was N55.9 billion in the first half of the year. “The levy continues to weigh on pre-tax earnings and reduces the amount of profit available for distribution to shareholders”, he said. Adonri argued that timely disclosure is essential to restoring confidence. “Delayed results can encourage speculation, distort price discovery and make it harder for investors to distinguish between banks that are managing risk effectively and those facing deeper balance-sheet challenges. They also complicate portfolio decisions at a time when foreign and domestic investors are seeking clarity on earnings quality, dividend prospects and capital-raising plans”, he concluded. For now, attention will remain on the outstanding lenders. If the delayed 9M 2026 results show a broad contraction in loan books, rising impairments or weaker core earnings, concerns about the sector’s credit cycle could intensify. Conversely, stronger-than-expected lending growth and stable asset quality would provide reassurance that the banking system remains resilient despite a challenging operating environment. Until those results are released, frustration is likely to persist, with investors forced to rely on a limited set of disclosures and analyst estimates to gauge the true state of Nigeria’s banking sector. Tags:

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