Access Holdings and UBA: From global reach to shareholder value

The central question is whether these two banking groups can turn their extensive overseas franchises into a sustainable advantage over competitors whose earnings remain more concentrated in Nigeria, including GTCO and Zenith Bank.

The answer will depend on earnings quality, asset quality, capital efficiency, foreign-exchange movements and management’s ability to meet regulatory requirements without sacrificing the value of profitable international businesses.

Naira devaluation: The hidden value of foreign investments

The sharp depreciation of the naira in 2023 and 2024 materially increased the naira value of foreign assets and earnings held by Nigerian banking groups. Fitch Ratings highlighted this development in its September 2026 analysis of African banking groups.

For banks that acquired foreign subsidiaries when the naira was stronger, the economic implications are significant. Their original naira investments may have secured ownership of valuable foreign-currency assets and earnings streams whose naira equivalents have since increased.

This does not automatically translate into a realised accounting gain or cash available for dividends. Nevertheless, it strengthens the case for examining the returns generated by these investments relative to their original cost and current carrying value.

The same currency movement can also increase the naira value of qualifying foreign investments relative to shareholders’ funds, creating regulatory challenges even without further acquisitions.

That is the paradox of international expansion: naira depreciation can enhance the naira value of foreign earnings while simultaneously complicating compliance with investment limits.

Access Holdings: Visible steps towards compliance

Access Holdings has become a clear example of the tension between foreign earnings growth and regulatory discipline.

Management disclosed foreign-investment exposure of approximately 19.3 percent, against the 10 percent limit it identified under Section 19(8)(c) of the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA). The group also linked its FY2025 dividend restriction to outstanding regulatory requirements.

Importantly, Access has moved beyond simply acknowledging the issue.

In July 2026, Access Bank sold a 7.44 percent stake in Access Bank Ghana, transferring 12,085,318 shares to a wider pool of investors. Its ownership fell from 93.40 percent to approximately 85.96 percent, leaving it firmly in control of the Ghanaian subsidiary. The transaction received the necessary regulatory approvals, including a no-objection from the Bank of Ghana.

This is a tangible step towards capital optimisation and regulatory remediation. It demonstrates that Access can reduce its stake in a foreign subsidiary without necessarily abandoning the market or surrendering operational control.

The sale does not, by itself, establish that the overall foreign-investment limit has been met. Further measures may be required, and the transaction price was not disclosed. Nevertheless, it represents visible progress towards addressing the issue.

The commercial rationale for retaining profitable international operations is clear. Fitch reported that Access’s foreign subsidiaries contributed approximately 48 percent of group net income in 2025, up from 30 percent in 2021. Foreign operations accounted for 51 percent of group assets at the end of 2025.

In Q1 2026, Access Bank UK reported profit after tax of ₦83.8 billion, compared with ₦52 billion for the Nigerian banking operation.

Access’s challenge, therefore, is not simply to reduce its foreign-investment exposure. It is to achieve regulatory compliance while preserving the earnings power of a valuable international franchise.

UBA: an international earnings powerhouse

UBA’s foreign operations are even more prominent in its earnings mix. Fitch reported that foreign subsidiaries contributed approximately 77 percent of group net income in 2025, up from 44 percent in 2024, while accounting for 52 percent of total assets.

This provides substantial geographic diversification, although Fitch noted that the 2025 earnings contribution was amplified by weaker domestic performance.

A preliminary examination of UBA’s FY2025 audited parent-bank accounts suggests foreign-subsidiary investments of approximately ₦258.56 billion against parent-bank shareholders’ equity of approximately ₦2.223 trillion, producing an indicative ratio of 11.63 percent.

This is a useful indicator for further scrutiny, not a confirmed regulatory breach. The applicable regulatory calculation may use different qualifying investment values and a different definition of shareholders’ funds.

UBA’s decision not to pay a final dividend for FY2025 was attributed by management to the costs and provisioning associated with exiting regulatory forbearance. Its H1 2026 reporting timetable has also involved regulatory clearance. Neither development, on its own, proves that UBA faces the same foreign-investment issue as Access.

The market therefore needs clear disclosures on UBA’s qualifying foreign investments, capital position and dividend capacity. Its international earnings base is significant, but its precise regulatory position must be established from the relevant regulatory returns and filings.

Could Access and UBA outperform GTCO and Zenith?

The comparison is not simply between international and domestic banks. GTCO and Zenith also have foreign operations and strong earnings franchises.

The distinction lies in the relative contribution of overseas businesses and the extent to which each group can diversify its earnings beyond Nigeria.

For 2025, Nairametrics reported the following foreign-subsidiary profit-before-tax (PBT) figures:

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