How Southern Votes Could Make or Break Tinubu, Obi, Atiku’s Chances in 2027 Presidential Election

According to report by The Nation on Sunday, October 25, 2026, with about 83 days remaining before the January 16, 2027 presidential election, political attention has shifted increasingly to Southern Nigeria, where the issue of power rotation is expected to influence voting patterns.

Of the 19 presidential candidates, 14 are from the South, reinforcing the argument that the region should retain the presidency after the North’s eight-year tenure under former President Muhammadu Buhari.

The informal zoning arrangement, although not contained in the 1999 Constitution, has become an important factor in Nigeria’s political calculations.

It could pose a major challenge to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, whose presidential bid is being viewed in some Southern circles as an attempt to disrupt the perceived North-South power-sharing understanding.

The 2027 contest is increasingly shaping up as a three-way battle involving President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), and Atiku, the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, running under the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), is another Southern candidate but appears to have limited influence beyond his home state.

Tinubu enters the contest with significant advantages, particularly following political realignments in the Southeast and South-South.

Several governors who were previously outside the APC have joined the ruling party, including Peter Mbah of Enugu and Francis Nwifuru of Ebonyi, while all six South-South governors are now associated with the APC.

In 2023, Tinubu struggled in the Southeast, where Obi secured 1,960,589 votes against his 127,605.

Obi also defeated Tinubu across the South-South, polling 1,210,675 votes compared with Tinubu’s 799,957. However, the ruling party believes the political landscape has changed considerably.

The Southwest remains Tinubu’s strongest base, although internal party disputes in states such as Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Oyo, Ondo and Ekiti remain concerns.

In Lagos, APC has intensified grassroots mobilisation and reconciliation efforts to prevent a repeat of its 2023 presidential defeat in the state.

Ogun is also expected to remain favourable to Tinubu, while Oyo presents a more competitive contest because of Makinde’s influence and the presence of strong opposition structures.

Analysts expect the Southeast to remain Obi’s strongest territory, while Atiku faces the challenge of rebuilding his political structures across the South.

In the South-South, APC’s control of the six state governments is expected to strengthen Tinubu’s position, although Obi retains significant ethnic and youth appeal.

The Southern states are likely to become decisive battlegrounds, with Tinubu holding substantial structural advantages but facing opposition efforts to exploit economic hardship, voter dissatisfaction and regional sentiments.

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