How 44.7m Voters in North-West, South-West Could Decide Tinubu, Obi, Atiku’s Fate in 2027

According to report by Vanguard on Sunday, October 25, 2026, the 2027 presidential race is increasingly shaping up around two politically influential regions; the North-West and South-West, whose combined voter population could significantly affect the battle for Aso Rock.

According to the 2026 voter register released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the North-West has 25,083,411 registered voters, while the South-West has 19,614,274.

Combined, the two regions account for 44,697,685 voters, representing more than 43 per cent of Nigeria’s total 103,428,715 registered voters.

The figures underline the importance of both regions, although registered voters alone cannot determine the outcome.

Candidates must translate registration figures into actual votes while building support outside their traditional strongholds.

President Bola Tinubu has an obvious advantage in the South-West, where his political career and structures are deeply rooted.

However, his 2023 victory showed that northern support was equally important to his success.

His major challengers, including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, therefore face the task of weakening Tinubu’s support in these regions while expanding their own national reach.

The North-West, Nigeria’s largest geopolitical voting bloc, includes states such as Kano, Kaduna and Katsina, all of which carry substantial electoral weight.

Lagos, meanwhile, remains the country’s largest state by voter registration, with 7,488,633 registered voters.

Despite their numerical strength, neither region can be regarded as a guaranteed political territory.

The 2023 election demonstrated this clearly. Obi defeated Tinubu in Lagos by 9,848 votes, securing 582,454 votes against Tinubu’s 572,606.

The North-West was similarly divided. Atiku won Kaduna with 554,360 votes against Tinubu’s 399,293, while Rabiu Kwankwaso won Kano for the New Nigeria Peoples Party.

Tinubu eventually emerged victorious nationally with 8,794,726 votes, ahead of Atiku’s 6,984,520 and Obi’s 6,101,533.

His victory reflected support across several regions and the division of opposition votes.

Political analyst Simon Kolawole observed that Tinubu performed strongly in the South-West and core North, but argued that victory also requires meaningful support from areas such as the North-Central and South-South.

Under Section 134 of the Constitution, a presidential candidate must win the highest number of votes and secure at least 25 per cent in two-thirds of the states and the Federal Capital Territory.

As 2027 approaches, alliances, candidate selection, party structures, turnout and voters’ assessment of the economy, insecurity and living conditions could prove decisive.

The North-West and South-West may shape the electoral arithmetic, but neither can independently guarantee victory.

The candidate who successfully converts voter strength into ballots and builds a broad national coalition is likely to have the clearest path to Aso Rock.

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