Ghana To Overtake Ethiopia As Africa’s 8th Largest Economy

Ghana is set to overtake Ethiopia to become Africa’s eighth-largest economy in 2026 according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook projects Ghana’s nominal Gross Domestic Product at $128.64 billion in 2026 with real growth of 5.7 percent, putting it ahead of Ethiopia which is projected at $127.15 billion. The difference is about $1.49 billion which would push Ghana to eighth place and Ethiopia to ninth. The Democratic Republic of Congo is projected at $122.28 billion.

The report was published by Radarr Africa on October 24 and reported by GBC Ghana Online and Addis Standard. According to GBC Ghana Online which published its report on October 22, Ghana’s 2025 GDP stood at $108.1 billion with growth of 4.8 percent and a ranking of tenth. The move to eighth in 2026 would therefore be a jump of two places in one year.

Addis Standard, in a report published on AllAfrica on October 19, attributed the change in ranking mainly to exchange-rate movements rather than differences in real growth. Ethiopia is actually forecast to grow faster at 9.2 percent in 2026 and 7.8 percent in 2027 compared to Ghana’s 5.7 percent. However, the Ethiopian birr depreciated sharply after the government’s foreign exchange reforms in July 2024 which lowered the dollar value of its output. Those reforms were part of a programme supported by an IMF Extended Credit Facility of about $3.4 billion.

The same IMF ranking puts South Africa at the top of the table with $490 billion, followed by Egypt at $435.34 billion and Nigeria at $390.37 billion. Algeria, Morocco, Angola and Kenya are ranked fourth to seventh. Kenya has also overtaken Ethiopia as East Africa’s largest economy in nominal dollar terms.

For Ghana, the projection signals a strong recovery after recent economic challenges including debt restructuring and high inflation. The country has been implementing reforms under an IMF programme and has seen improved fiscal discipline, growth in gold and cocoa exports and relative stability of the cedi in recent months. The Ghana Gold Board and Bank of Ghana’s reserve accumulation programme have also boosted foreign exchange inflows.

Economists say overtaking Ethiopia would improve investor confidence and could attract more foreign direct investment into manufacturing, mining and services. It also strengthens Ghana’s position in continental trade negotiations under the African Continental Free Trade Area.

The IMF forecasts growth in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.5 percent in both 2026 and 2027, with Ghana outperforming the regional average.

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