EPRA Explains Why Kenyans May Face More Fuel Price Changes Despite Government Subsidies

Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) Director General Edward Kinyua has explained why fuel prices in Kenya may continue changing every month, pointing to rising international oil prices, shipping expenses and the country’s reliance on imported petroleum products.

Speaking during an interview with Radio 47 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, Kinyua said Kenya’s fuel prices are directly affected by developments in the global oil market because the country imports refined petroleum products instead of processing crude oil locally.

He explained that when international oil prices rise, the cost of importing fuel into Kenya increases, putting pressure on pump prices. Conversely, a decline in international prices can create room for reductions at local petrol stations.

Kinyua cited the movement in global crude oil prices to illustrate the pressure facing fuel-importing countries. He said oil was trading at approximately $108 per barrel at the time of the interview, compared with about $60 in January 2026.

He also referred to a period when prices reportedly reached $157 per barrel amid heightened tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, developments that placed additional pressure on petroleum costs.

The explanation comes after EPRA announced a significant increase in fuel prices in its latest monthly review. Petrol rose by KSh12.93 per litre, diesel by KSh9.90 and kerosene by KSh28.49, with the authority citing pressures linked to tensions in the Middle East.

Following the adjustment, Super Petrol was retailing at KSh226.96 per litre in Nairobi, while diesel cost KSh227.76 and kerosene KSh219.87.

The increases have added to the financial pressure on motorists, public transport operators, businesses and households that depend on fuel for transportation and other daily activities.

Kinyua said EPRA determines pump prices using an established pricing formula rather than setting figures arbitrarily. The formula takes into account the costs associated with purchasing petroleum products from international suppliers and bringing them into Kenya.

These expenses include the price of the imported products, loading costs and shipping charges. Together with other applicable costs and taxes, they contribute to the landed cost used in calculating the final price paid by consumers.

The EPRA chief also explained that Kenya’s dependence on imported refined fuel leaves the country exposed to fluctuations in international markets. According to him, local refining operations ended in 2013, leaving the country reliant on supplies processed abroad.

This means that even when domestic demand remains relatively stable, changes in international oil prices, shipping costs and geopolitical conditions can influence what Kenyans pay at the pump.

However, Kinyua maintained that the government had introduced measures to cushion consumers against even higher prices.

He disclosed that the government had spent KSh243 billion from the Petroleum Development Levy Fund since April 2026 to help absorb the impact of rising fuel costs.

The government had also reduced Value Added Tax (VAT) on fuel from 16 per cent to 8 per cent, a move intended to limit the increase passed on to consumers.

Kinyua argued that without these interventions, the latest pump prices could have risen even further.

The measures are intended to moderate the impact of international price movements, although they do not eliminate the underlying costs of importing petroleum products.

He further noted that the country’s fuel-pricing process operates under Legal Notice No. 182 of 2022, which provides a framework for determining the costs passed on to consumers and requires them to be reasonable and justified.

The explanation offers motorists insight into why government interventions may soften fuel price increases without necessarily preventing them altogether.

With Kenya continuing to rely on imported refined petroleum products, future pump prices will remain sensitive to changes in global oil prices, shipping expenses and other costs involved in delivering fuel to the country.

The direction of each monthly adjustment will depend on how these factors change during the relevant pricing period.

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