The (very red) pattern of Trump’s 2026 campaign rallies

President Donald Trump waves after speaking at a midterm campaign rally in Highland Heights, Kentucky, on October 17. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images Donald Trump JD Vance Election polls Electoral college See all topics Facebook Tweet Email Link Threads Link Copied! Follow A new Washington Post-ABC News poll over the weekend featured a telling stat.

Other recent polls have generally shown voters prefer Democrats over Republicans for Congress by close to 10 points on the all-important “generic ballot.”

But when President Donald Trump is invoked — i.e. choosing between a Democratic-controlled Congress that could act as a check on Trump, versus a GOP-controlled Congress that could pass his agenda — that gap balloons. Registered voters preferred the blue side by 19 points, 58%-39%, in the Post-ABC News poll

It’s clear from those numbers why Republicans in swing areas would be reluctant to campaign with Trump — and why he’s hitting such red territory.

With the president’s midterm travels now in full swing, a number of patterns have emerged: 1) He’s campaigning overwhelmingly in red states that voted for him by double digits in 2024, and 2) when he does campaign in more competitive areas, it’s generally for candidates in red states who are struggling — and seem to need to roll the dice on Trump driving up turnout among a dejected GOP base.

There are exceptions to both, and Trump’s travel schedule is evolving. But that’s about the shape of it.

Vice President JD Vance has traveled to many of the same places as Trump — sometimes going to more politically challenging areas before the president does.

It’s certainly a far cry from when Trump said during the Republican midterm convention last month that he would travel to all 35 of the biggest “swings” in the country. NPR calculates he’s been to less than one-third of them.

The first pattern is unmistakable. Trump’s decision to use his limited time before the election to travel to dark-red states like Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky raised plenty of eyebrows

But it’s not just those states. Since the GOP’s midterm convention, the nearly 20 states that Trump has visited or is planning to visit this week voted for him by 14 points, on average.

That list includes as many states that voted for him by about 30 points (the four states named above) as presidential swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina).

Including New York — the lone state Trump lost in 2024 that he’s visited recently — Trump has traveled to or is planning to travel to only five states that didn’t vote for him by double digits.

That doesn’t mean that every Republican in key races has avoided campaigning with Trump.

But the ones who have appeared with him generally seem as though they could use a boost. Those in better shape and in swing-to-blue-leaning states haven’t welcomed him or have been scarcer when Trump comes around, including skipping his rallies.

Thus far, the two bona-fide presidential swing states where Trump has rallied with the Senate hopeful are Georgia and North Carolina. But in both cases, the polls and the two parties’ ad spending suggest those seats are likely lost to the GOP.

The other key GOP Senate candidates who have rallied with Trump or will rally with him in the coming days either come from states he won by at least 16 points (Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts, South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham and Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall), or come from double-digit Trump states but have trailed in more quality polls than they’ve led (Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan).

Polls in those states are sometimes within the margin of error and have no clear leader, but the Republicans have trailed in some of the other polls.

There is no sign yet of Trump campaigning for Senate candidates in blue-leaning states like Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire. He travels to Iowa and Michigan this week, but we don’t yet know who will attend.

The story is similar in governor’s races.

Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo and Georgia GOP nominee Rick Jackson have both campaigned with Trump in competitive, marquee races. Trump will also go to Florida this week to stump for Rep. Byron Donalds in a red state. (Donalds recently made headlines for scrubbing his website of Trump mentions.)

But the other gubernatorial candidates to appear with Trump are Republicans who have sometimes looked more like underdogs — in Alaska, Arizona and Ohio. And there is no sign yet of Trump campaigning with hopefuls in Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon and Wisconsin.

And when Trump visited Texas to campaign with Paxton earlier this month, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott — who has polled better than Paxton — very notably didn’t appear.

Absences have been a trend too. Sometimes when Trump shows up, the GOP candidates just … don’t.

That was true not only of Abbott, but also a bunch of New York GOP officials including vulnerable Rep. Mike Lawler when Trump visited that state, a pair of key House candidates in Arizona last week, and another GOP House candidate in Kentucky (who, like Donalds, scrubbed his website of Trump mentions) on Saturday.

And when Vance visited Iowa last month, GOP Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson didn’t attend — and Vance barely mentioned the Senate race.

A big question for this week is who shows up when Trump visits Iowa on Thursday and Michigan on Sunday.

In Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rogers has gone further than most top GOP Senate candidates to distance himself from Trump, including recently on Trump’s trade war with Canada. The president’s visit will take place on the Canada border in Port Huron, which could make for some difficult optics for Rogers.

In Iowa, Hinson has also sought distance from Trump on issues including the Iran war, importing foreign beef and, most recently, importing Russian diesel fuel. And as noted, she skipped the Vance event.

But she also comes from a redder state, and she has suggested she’d welcome Trump to Iowa — including when he put her on the spot during an Oval Office event in late September.

That could be a dilemma that awaits other Republicans. What happens if they’d prefer Trump not come, but he does anyway? He’s made clear he doesn’t like Republicans giving him the cold shoulder, nor does he appreciate the narrative that he’s a liability.

But that new Post/ABC News poll number speaks volumes. By showing his face in crucial states and making himself and his agenda the issue, Trump often appears to be doing his party no favors.