Oil Market Mixed as US-Russia Diesel Deal Offsets Supply Disruption Fears

The oil market was mixed on Tuesday as ​hopes that the US-Russia diesel deal could free up more supplies from the country offset attacks in Saudi Arabia and Yemen that could result in ‌additional supply disruptions.

Brent futures settled at $105.69 per barrel after going down by 96 cents or 0.9 per cent, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 40 cents or 0.4 per cent to $94.14 per barrel.

US President Donald Trump, in the face of sharp criticism from officials in Ukraine, Europe, and even his Republican party, defended his decision to allow Russian diesel exports and insisted an energy cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia is in place despite a lack of confirmation from either side.

The Kremlin said it did not ​see any direct link between a deal on exporting Russian diesel to the US and Moscow’s stance on the Ukraine peace talks.

Russia was the world’s third-biggest crude oil producer behind the US and Saudi ​Arabia in 2025. Sanctions designed to keep Russian energy out of global markets have helped support oil prices since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Any deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war could allow Russia to export more energy.

The price of diesel, a by-product of crude, rose to record highs in many ‌parts of ⁠the world in recent weeks due to global supply disruptions linked to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and Iran’s attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure.

Yemen’s Iran-allied Houthis said Saudi Arabia was attacking the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Tuesday after a Saudi-led coalition warned civilians to stay away from an oil depot on the city outskirts, part of a rapidly escalating war between the sides.

Concerns over the ​vulnerability of Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping ​lanes remained in focus after Iran-aligned ⁠Houthis struck Riyadh’s international airport over the weekend, while tanker attacks were reported near the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump also accused Yemen’s Houthi militants of deliberately trying to drive up ​oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections and warned that he would “never forget” their attacks on Saudi Arabia, amid ​a widening regional conflict ⁠fueled by the US war with Iran.

Despite ongoing disruptions of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) posted a sharp gain in production in September, driven by an increase from Saudi Arabia.

OPEC also lowered its ​forecast for 2026 oil demand growth for a sixth straight month, and raised its forecast for next year, citing the need for the world to rebuild inventories depleted by the Iran war.

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Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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