US Opposes All 7 UN SG Candidates But Could Olara Otunnu Emerge As The Compromise?

Uganda’s former Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Olara Otunnu, could emerge as a compromise candidate in the race for the next UN Secretary-General if disagreements among leading contenders and opposition from powerful member states create a prolonged deadlock.

In an analysis of the ongoing contest, London-based constitutional and human rights barrister Peter Magomu Mashate argues that the position of the United States could complicate the selection process while potentially creating an unexpected opportunity for Otunnu.

According to Mashate, the administration of US President Donald Trump has reportedly refused to support any of the seven remaining candidates because Washington believes none has demonstrated a sufficient commitment to the sweeping structural reforms and budget cuts it wants to see at the United Nations.

Mashate argues that Washington considers many of the candidates too closely associated with the existing UN system to deliver the scale of reform it is seeking. He also points to US concerns about what American officials describe as politicised ideological approaches within international institutions.

The United States has significant influence over the selection process because it is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, alongside China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom. Each of the five permanent members can veto a recommended candidate, making their positions crucial to the final decision.

Visit UHRC Sponsored The competition has narrowed to seven candidates following the reported withdrawal of former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet on September 20, after an unfavourable showing in the selection process.

Figures attributed to the fifth straw poll, reportedly conducted on October 7, show Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan leading the field with nine votes encouraging her candidacy and six discouraging it.

Argentina’s Rafael Grossi received six encouraging votes, seven discouraging votes and two indicating no opinion. Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett recorded five encouraging votes, nine discouraging votes and one indicating no opinion.

Former Senegalese president Macky Sall received five encouraging votes against ten discouraging votes, while Otunnu recorded three encouraging votes and twelve discouraging votes.

Ecuador’s María Fernanda Espinosa received three encouraging votes, nine discouraging votes and three indicating no opinion. Ivonne Baki recorded no encouraging votes, fourteen discouraging votes and one indicating no opinion.

The figures suggest that Otunnu faces a difficult path to securing the support needed to advance his candidacy. Mashate, however, believes that the current numbers do not necessarily rule him out if the leading candidates fail to attract sufficient support from the Security Council’s permanent members.

Otunnu’s reported performance also represents a decline from earlier straw polls. Mashate cites figures of five encouraging, five discouraging and five neutral responses on August 21, followed by five encouraging, eight discouraging and two neutral responses on September 29.

Why America May Still Compromise on Otunnu

Despite the unfavourable numbers, Mashate argues that Otunnu possesses a combination of diplomatic experience, institutional knowledge and reform proposals that could make him attractive if the selection process reaches a deadlock.

One of Otunnu’s most notable credentials is his experience in the workings of the United Nations. He served as Uganda’s Permanent Representative to the organisation from 1980 to 1985 and later became the UN Under-Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict, serving from 1998 to 2005 under former Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

He also served as president of the International Peace Institute from 1990 to 1998 and studied at Harvard Law School as a Fulbright Scholar.

Mashate further highlights Otunnu’s historical role in the development of the informal straw-poll procedure used to assess candidates for the position of Secretary-General. The procedure is associated with the name “Otunnu Formula” because of his role in developing the approach during his diplomatic career.

According to Mashate, Otunnu’s experience in navigating disagreements within the United Nations could become particularly valuable if the current candidates struggle to secure the necessary backing.

His supporters could also point to his work on children affected by armed conflict. Otunnu played a leading role in advancing international action on the protection of children in war, including the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1261 in 1999 and subsequent efforts to establish a monitoring and reporting mechanism under Resolution 1612 in 2005.

Another factor identified by Mashate is Otunnu’s stated vision for reforming the United Nations.

The barrister argues that Otunnu has presented proposals for addressing what he describes as an oversized and expensive bureaucracy, reducing duplication and improving institutional effectiveness.

Such proposals could appeal to Washington, which has pushed for lower spending and structural changes across parts of the UN system.

However, securing American support would not automatically guarantee Otunnu’s selection. He would also need to attract sufficient backing from other Security Council members, including the remaining permanent members, whose interests and priorities may differ.

The challenge for any candidate will be to demonstrate that reforms can improve the organisation’s effectiveness without undermining its core responsibilities, particularly international peace and security, humanitarian assistance and the protection of human rights.

Could America’s Opposition Become Otunnu’s Lifeline?

Mashate believes that a prolonged disagreement over the leading candidates could alter the dynamics of the contest and potentially create an opening for Otunnu.

He points to the 1996 selection process, when disagreements among Security Council members resulted in repeated straw polls before Kofi Annan emerged as the successful candidate.

In Mashate’s assessment, a similar impasse could weaken the prospects of candidates who initially appear to have the strongest support and create room for a compromise choice.

He argues that regional considerations, the campaign for a woman to become the first female UN Secretary-General and the competing interests of major powers could all influence the final decision.

Grynspan’s position near the top of the reported straw-poll results does not necessarily guarantee her selection if she cannot secure sufficient support from the permanent members. The same challenge applies to the other contenders.

Mashate suggests that Otunnu’s diplomatic experience, knowledge of the UN system and reform proposals could make him an alternative if the leading candidates become unacceptable to one or more powerful member states.

He also argues that Otunnu’s age and experience could be presented as advantages in a one-term leadership arrangement, although any such outcome would depend on negotiations and the preferences of the Security Council.

The Next Ballot Could Determine Otunnu’s Fate

The next rounds of straw polling are expected to provide a clearer indication of the candidates’ prospects, particularly as the process moves towards ballots that distinguish the positions of the five permanent Security Council members.

Mashate identifies the anticipated colour-coded ballot round, expected on October 16, as a potentially important moment in the contest. Unlike earlier white-ballot rounds, the colour-coded procedure is intended to help reveal whether a permanent member is opposing a candidate.

For Otunnu, an improvement in the number of encouraging votes would strengthen the argument that his candidacy remains viable. Continued low support, however, would make it increasingly difficult for him to convince member states that he can build a winning coalition.

Mashate maintains that the race is not necessarily settled and that Washington’s position could have consequences beyond the candidates currently leading the field.

In his view, if disagreements persist and the leading contenders fail to secure broad acceptance, Otunnu could be considered as a compromise candidate capable of engaging both Western powers and countries in the Global South.

Whether that possibility becomes reality will depend on the positions of the Security Council’s permanent members, the willingness of other countries to support his reform agenda and the outcome of the remaining selection rounds.

For Uganda, Otunnu’s candidacy presents an opportunity to place a former senior diplomat in contention for one of the world’s most influential international positions. However, his reported straw-poll results show that significant diplomatic work would be required to turn that possibility into a realistic path to the office.

The writer, Barrister Peter Magomu Mashate, is a London-based administrative, constitutional and human rights barrister-at-law of the Honourable Society of Lincoln’s Inn in the United Kingdom.

For inquiries, contact: [email protected]

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