Despite long history with Netanyahu, Trump hedges as Israel vote nears

The Israeli leader has, in turn, portrayed himself as the best steward of Israel’s most significant foreign relationship, weathering a handful of public criticisms and leaked discontents from Trump that have yielded little concrete policy change.

But despite the pair’s long history, Trump has so far taken a decidedly ho-hum approach to the October 27 Israeli election. The vote sees Netanyahu’s Likud party and the far-right coalition it leads under increasing threat from Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot and an opposition bloc he seeks to build.

It is an – at least public – ambivalence likely fuelled by shifting political winds in both the US and Israel, as well as the evolving relationship between Trump and Netanyahu, according to Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine/Israel programme at the Arab Center Washington DC.

“He seems to be keeping greater distance from it than you would think,” Munayyer told Al Jazeera, “given Trump’s past endorsements of right-wing allies, given the history of the Trump-Netanyahu relationship, and just how close Trump and Netanyahu have been”.

The US president thrice dodged a direct endorsement of Netanyahu in a recent Time magazine interview, even as he defended the Israeli prime minister’s leadership ahead of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

On Eisenkot, he conceded, “I don’t hear bad things.”

To be sure, Trump’s actions towards Israel – and Netanyahu in particular – have often spoken far louder than his words.

During his first term from 2017 to 2021, Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognised Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and spearheaded a series of normalisation agreements with Arab countries that sought to circumvent the Israel-Palestine issue.

During his second term that started in January 2025, he continued to surge even the most destructive US weapons to Israel amid its genocide in Gaza, escalated a crackdown on the International Criminal Court (ICC) and, as a crown jewel, entered a global economy-rattling war with Iran.

Trump has also called for Netanyahu to be pardoned in his ongoing corruption trial, while hosting the Israeli leader at least seven times since returning to the White House last year, far more than any other world leader.

Throughout their relationship, hints of discord over Netanyahu’s obstruction of Washington’s push for a more lasting peace in Gaza and an end to the war with Iran have never materialised into actual policy changes.

“It’s a relationship they’ve carefully choreographed for public consumption, and the few juicy bits that we’ve learned have been almost entirely of Trump’s choosing,” said Michael Omer-Man, Israel-Palestine director at the Washington, DC-based DAWN think tank, who did not rule out a sweeping US gesture to boost Netanyahu in the final stretch of the race.

“I don’t think that Trump’s abandoned Netanyahu,” he told Al Jazeera. “But he’s also a realist, and he’s seen a lot of his preferred candidates in various countries lose elections as well as win them.”

The stakes may just not be that high for Trump, Omer-Man assessed.

Eisenkot has promised a more moderate approach than Netanyahu’s, particularly when it comes to stemming rampant settler violence in the occupied West Bank. But those changes are largely aimed at boosting Israel’s standing among European governments and the global public, with little bearing on already permissive relations with the Trump administration.

“I don’t think we would see a whole lot of change vis-a-vis the US, because there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of friction in the relationship,” he said.

“An Eisenkot government might stop taking over every single hilltop in the West Bank; they might allow more [aid] into Gaza,” he said, “but they’re not going to reverse any of the steps that have already been taken.”

Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst on Israel at the International Crisis Group, also pointed to the shifting context surrounding Trump and Netanyahu’s relationship.

Trump’s reticence reflects, in part, a divide within the Trump administration over Netanyahu’s government, which reflects a wider Republican Party divide as US midterm elections approach.

“It’s probably a combination of the Iran war and the split in the Trump administration with people like [Vice President JD] Vance, who have come out very much against Netanyahu’s role in pushing for the US to strike Iran,” said Zonszein.

Public opinion polls have repeatedly suggested support for Israel remains high among Republicans, but has ticked down in recent years. Confidence in Netanyahu has also declined within the party.

At the same time, the perception of Trump’s influence has shifted in Israel, with Netanyahu’s critics seizing on the US role in constraining Israeli operations in Lebanon that threatened to derail a June memorandum of understanding that briefly paused the US-Israel war on Iran.

An Israeli Democracy Institute poll released in June found only 44 percent of Jewish Israelis thought Israel’s security was a top consideration for Trump, down from 61 percent in March, shortly after the US and Israel launched the war with Iran.

For his part, Netanyahu has avoided the billboards boasting his close relationship with Trump this election cycle, a departure from his approach in years past, Zonszein explained.

Instead, he has featured who he considers to be Israel’s top regional and international foes, including Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Netanyahu, Zonszein said, is highlighting “his enemies versus his friends”.