September 2026 second-warmest on record globally

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Europe faces record warmth and low river flows in September

September 2026 was the second-warmest September on record globally, with average temperatures remaining above 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels for the second consecutive month, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

Global temperatures reached 1.63°C above the pre-industrial baseline during the month, extending a period of unusually high temperatures that began in August, C3S said in its monthly climate bulletin published on October 9.

The service, implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said the average sea surface temperature across the global oceans between 60° south and 60° north reached its highest level on record for September amid strengthening El Niño conditions.

El Niño conditions continued to intensify in the equatorial Pacific, with the climate pattern potentially developing into one of the strongest events recorded, according to Copernicus.

The agency said the run of months with global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was likely to continue into 2027.

However, a temporary monthly breach of the 1.5°C threshold does not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term warming limit has formally been exceeded. That goal concerns the long-term average global temperature, rather than individual months.

Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said the latest figures reflected the persistence of exceptional global heat.

“Crossing the Paris Agreement’s long-term limit is only a matter of time. How far we overshoot, and for how long, is still up to us,” Buontempo said.

Europe experienced continued unusually warm and dry conditions in September following an extreme summer.

The month was the continent’s third-warmest September on record, while western Europe recorded its joint-warmest September, according to Copernicus.

Widespread dry conditions persisted across much of western and central Europe and parts of eastern Europe, worsening in several areas compared with August.

The drought also affected river levels. Parts of the Rhine, Danube, Vistula and Garonne-Dordogne recorded their lowest September river flows, disrupting navigation, water supplies and agriculture in several countries.

Late-month rainfall brought local relief, while parts of northern and northeastern Europe and Türkiye experienced wetter-than-average conditions.

Around Antarctica, sea ice extent reached its third-lowest annual winter maximum, another indicator of changes in the global climate system.

Copernicus said its findings were based on ERA5 climate data, which are used to monitor changes in global surface air temperatures and other climate indicators.

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