Iran Blockade Polymarket Odds: Trump Calms Oil, Not Traders

Iran blockade Polymarket odds sit at just 9.5% despite Trump’s no-strike pledge, while Brent hovers near $103 and Bitcoin rebounds.

Iran blockade Polymarket odds put the chance of the United States announcing an end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by October 15 at 9.5%, up from 8.5% a day earlier. That is low even after President Donald Trump said Washington will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.

The contract resolves only on an official U.S. announcement that clearly ends or suspends the blockade. Talks, a pause in strikes, or looser enforcement do not count.

🩸 Crypto has spent its past 7 days under heavy pressure, with most major assets in red. Rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, a firm dollar and leveraged liquidations have pushed Bitcoin back to $81.8K, and most altcoins have predictably been punished even harder.

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) October 8, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the open sea. In normal times, about a fifth of the world’s oil passes through it, along with a large share of liquefied natural gas, and most Gulf exporters have no practical alternative route.

That is why every blockade headline moves energy prices. Brent crude jumped about 4% on October 8 after more attacks on tankers leaving the Middle East. It then slipped to around $103 a barrel on October 9 after Trump’s pledge, and it is still on track for a weekly gain.

Bitcoin trades the same headlines. It fell to a low near $80,300 on Thursday as about $1.09 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, roughly $931 million of them longs. After Trump’s post, Bitcoin rebounded to about $82,500, still around 4% lower on the week. Oil above $100 keeps inflation and Treasury yield pressure on risk assets, so a calmer Iran headline helps crypto, and a new tanker attack hurts it.

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Trump posted on Truth Social on October 8, after a report that the Pentagon was weighing strike options. He said the U.S. is having “productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran” and that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.” He did not lift the blockade. Iran’s Tasnim news agency said Tehran is reviewing a U.S. reply to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.

Traders treat a promise not to strike as different from ending the blockade. The odds rise with time: 20.5% for an announcement by October 31, 36% by November 30, and 44.65% by December 31. Polymarket’s shipping markets are more pessimistic. The contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by October 31 sits at 2%, down 26 points since mid-August, with $1.94 million in volume. The December 31 version is at 19%, with $14.45 million in volume.

The next dates to watch are Tehran’s answer to the seven-day proposal, U.S. CPI on October 14, the Federal Reserve decision on October 28, and the midterms on November 3.

For now, Iran’s blockade, Polymarket odds say Trump’s pledge lowers the risk of escalation, but not the odds that the blockade ends soon.

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