Flanagan leads Tafoya by 4 points in new Minnesota Senate poll

Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) leads her GOP opponent, former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, in a new poll on the state’s U.S. Senate race.

The Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota poll found 47 percent of respondents supported Flanagan, while 43 percent backed Tafoya, 9 percent were undecided and less than 1 percent picked someone else. The 4-point gap is within the poll’s margin of error.

Tafoya led among independents in the typically blue state with 38 percent support, compared with 32 percent for Flanagan; 29 percent were undecided, and 1 percent picked another candidate.

Flanagan’s independent supporters told the Star Tribune they supported her over Tafoya because of their opposition to President Trump, particularly for Operation Metro Surge, the deadly immigration raids in Minneapolis, and his war in Iran. The poll found 38 percent of Minnesotans approved of Trump’s performance as president, while 58 disapproved and 4 percent were unsure.

The Department of Homeland Security’s immigration crackdown in Minnesota set off massive protests in the state following the deaths of U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti, who were fatally shot by federal immigration officers in separate incidents.

Independent supporters of Tafoya focused on Flanagan’s leadership during Minnesota’s infamous welfare fraud scandal. Since 2022, more than 98 people have been charged in the Department of Justice’s sweeping probe of the widespread money-laundering scheme.

The lieutenant governor has condemned the fraud, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) launched an audit into more than a dozen Medicaid services earlier this year.

Tafoya led in the poll among men, voters without a college degree and those aged 50 to 64 years old. The former sportscaster led Flanagan by 17 points among respondents in more rural Northern Minnesota and Southern Minnesota.

Flanagan led among respondents aged 18 to 49 years old, women and those with a college degree. She received more support than Tafoya in Minnesota’s two most populous counties by 37 points.

Flanagan and Tafoya are competing to replace outgoing Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) after the Democratic lawmaker announced her retirement from Congress last year.

The Cook Political Report rates the open seat “likely Democrat.” However, polls have repeatedly shown Tafoya within striking distance.

Rep. Angie Craig (Minn.), who lost to Flanagan in the Democratic primary, will begin campaigning for the lieutenant governor in the coming days.

Minnesota is also expected to be impacted heavily by Trump’s ongoing tit-for-tat tariff conflict with Canada, as the state’s largest export market in 2025 was Canada, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office. Some 24 percent of the state’s total exported goods — or $5.6 billion — was sent to Canada last year.

The Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota poll was conducted from Oct. 5 to 7 among 800 Minnesota likely voters. The poll’s margin of sampling error is 3.5 percentage points.