RBI rate hike could lift large banks net interest margins by up to 10 bps: Report

The brokerage estimates that a 25-basis-point rate hike could expand net interest margins (NIMs) of larger banks by 6–10 basis points and boost earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 3–5 per cent.

 “Our sensitivity analysis suggests a 25bps rate hike should drive 6-10bps NIM expansion and 3-5% EPS upgrade for larger banks,” it said, highlighting that PSU banks “will see lower NIM expansion; pass-through to EPS will be higher.”

On the transmission of higher interest rates, the brokerage noted that banks with a greater share of repo-linked loans are likely to benefit from faster loan repricing.

“The banks with a higher share of repo-linked loans…should see faster loan repricing vs. fixed rate lenders,” it said.

Meanwhile, the report highlighted tightening liquidity conditions in the banking system, noting that liquidity has declined from a recent peak of Rs 11 trillion to Rs 5 trillion, equivalent to around 2 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL).

The report further noted that banking system liquidity has declined from a recent peak of Rs 11 trillion to Rs 5 trillion, equivalent to around 2 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL).

It expects liquidity to tighten further due to increased currency circulation and regulatory measures, including US dollar sell-buy swaps, variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) operations, open market operation (OMO) sales and foreign exchange market interventions.

Consequently, the weighted average call rate (WACR) and three-month certificate of deposit (CD) rates are expected to rise gradually, after declining by 15 basis points and 100 basis points, respectively, since the announcement of the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) [FCNR(B)] deposit window.

On banking sector valuations, the report noted that mid-sized banks have seen their valuations rise by 5–25 percentage points so far this calendar year, while public sector banks have witnessed a decline of 5–25 percentage points. Against this backdrop, large private sector banks offer a relatively more attractive risk-reward proposition.

“Mid-size banks have re-rated 5-25ppt CYTD vs 5- 25 ppt de-rating for PSU banks and HDFC and unchanged for large Pvt banks. Thus, risk-reward is more attractive for larger banks,” it said. (ANI)

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