“Let’s Stick to Science, Data and Listen to Experts Regarding El Niño,” Kenya Met Urges

The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority (KMSA) has urged Kenyans to rely on scientific information rather than assume that the El Niño phenomenon automatically means heavy rainfall, saying the weather pattern’s impact depends on how it interacts with other climatic conditions.

The department says El Niño has been present since April-May-June, when ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific reached the threshold used to identify the phenomenon.

From October, it is likely to contribute to enhanced rainfall if other weather factors align.

In an explanation shared by the department, KMSA noted that El Niño refers to unusually warm temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and does not, on its own, determine how much rain Kenya receives.

The amount of rainfall depends on how the phenomenon interacts with other factors, including the Indian Ocean, winds, weather systems and local conditions.

These can reinforce the likelihood of rain or reduce its impact.

“People should stop believing that El Niño is rainfall,” the statement stressed, urging Kenyans to follow forecasts and expert guidance as the rainy season progresses.

The department said its October monthly forecast had outlined the expected onset dates for the rains, adding that current weather developments were in line with the forecast.

The weather agency has also defended its public education efforts, saying it has been explaining the phenomenon through monthly webinars and media engagements, including vernacular radio and other local-language platforms.

“KMSA has done its best since June to explain the El Niño phenomenon through our monthly webinars and engagements with the media including vernacular ones to ensure that Kenyans are well educated and it continues doing so,” the statement noted.

The department acknowledged that communication could still be improved but urged the public not to dismiss the work already done.

“I agree we need to improve on a lot of things especially communication but let us not beat ourselves too hard,” the statement added.

The official October-December 2026 seasonal outlook forecasts above-average rainfall across much of Kenya, with the timing and distribution expected to vary by region.

The department has urged the public, farmers and other sectors to use its regular forecasts to plan ahead.

The warning comes as the country prepares for possible flooding and other weather-related risks associated with heavier rainfall.

Health authorities have also advised counties to prepare for risks such as contaminated water sources and increased cases of waterborne diseases if flooding occurs.

The statement also linked El Niño to dry conditions that contributed to crop failure in parts of the North Rift, maintaining that its effects can differ across locations and seasons.

The agency said it would continue monitoring changing weather conditions and explaining the science behind its forecasts, urging Kenyans to rely on expert guidance rather than assumptions.

“Let us stick to the science and data because both do not lie. And listen to the experts,” the statement urged.

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