Babu’s Nairobi ambitions face test of alliances and numbers

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Embakasi East MP Babu OwinoEmbakasi East MP Babu Owino’s bid for the Nairobi governorship faces key bottlenecks as he seeks to build a political machine to win and retain him at City Hall.

Babu, who recently announced his vehicle as The Mwananchi Party, has declared he wants to build a party capable of controlling City Hall after the 2027 election.

However, his break up with ODM, the challenge from DCP and emergent issues within Linda Mwananchi threaten to complicate that strategy.

Babu said his gubernatorial bid needs to have a strong political base in the Nairobi County Assembly, noting that a governor needs the support of MCAs to effectively run the county.

He cited the impeachment cases of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and ex-Meru Governor Kawira Mwangaza as an example of what can happen when a leader lacks sufficient political backing. 

But his approach faces the growing competition for Nairobi’s 85 MCA seats and 17 parliamentary constituencies.

DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua has announced an aggressive campaign to expand his party’s presence in the capital, with Embakasi North MP James Gakuya among those seeking the party’s gubernatorial ticket.

Gachagua has said his party’s analysis shows DCP could win 62 of Nairobi’s 85 MCA seats and a majority of the city’s parliamentary seats.

And while Gachagua has also said his party would work with affiliate parties in the United Opposition and Linda Mwananchi, in Nairobi, has only mentioned a deal with Wiper.

Gakuya’s gubernatorial bid comes with the backing of a party that is seeking to establish a substantial ward and parliamentary network in Nairobi, and with a solid Kikuyu vote bloc.

This puts Babu in a contest that goes beyond his direct battle with Governor Johnson Sakaja, who is backed by UDA and ODM under the broad-based arrangement.

Political analyst Herman Manyora has argued that Babu and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna need each other politically, particularly in Nairobi.

Despite building the Linda Mwananchi movement together, there have been signs of differences within the camp, with each of them now having their own party.

This is despite them down playing the tensions and displaying a united front at The Equitable Party launch.

Manyora  notes that the two will ultimately need each other in the city politics.

“Babu pushing for his own party is too inconsequential; this city is going to be Linda Mwananchi, DCP and to some small extent the broad-based group,” Manyora notes.

Babu has, however, maintained his Nairobi gubernatorial ambitions while supporting Sifuna’s national ambitions.

Siaya Governor James Orengo, who is  part of the outfit, has also expressed presidential ambitions.

The fragmentation of the movement could thus affect Babu’s effort to build a coordinated political network in Nairobi, particularly if its constituent parties field competing candidates for MCAs and governor.

Babu’s other problem is his relationship with ODM, the party on which he was elected to Parliament twice rising to the inner circle of Raila Odinga.

He has since broken away and is seeking the governor’s seat through his own political vehicle.

The move followed growing differences over the Nairobi gubernatorial contest, with ODM moving closer to Sakaja as part of the broader political realignment.

While he had initially signaled closeness to Wiper, Babu has since announced he will run for governor through The Mwananchi Party.

That effectively means Babu is now seeking to replace the ODM network with his own.That is certainly not easy. 

ODM currently has the largest number of the city’s parliamentary seats, in addition to the Senate and Women Representative positions.

Its  partner in the broad-based arrangement UDA controls the governor’s office and four parliamentary seats.

Lang’ata MP Phelix Odiwuor aka Jalang’o, has argued that despite the emergence of Linda Mwananchi and other political formations, ODM structures remain influential in Nairobi.

Jalang’o maintained Nairobi voters remain largely aligned to established political formations, particularly ODM, which continues to command strong support in key constituencies.

Babu is therefore running against an incumbent who has access to the structures of the county government, UDA and ODN network, as well as Gakuya and the expanding DCP network.