Iran preserves missile factories despite US bombing

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Officials say Tehran retains ability to manufacture ballistic and anti-ship missiles

Iran has preserved key missile and drone manufacturing facilities despite months of US and Israeli airstrikes, allowing Tehran to replenish its weapons stocks and prepare for another possible round of fighting, according to Western officials familiar with intelligence assessments.

The findings reported by Bloomberg challenge repeated claims by the Trump administration that the military campaign has devastated Iran’s defence capabilities, while escalating attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz are adding to concerns over regional security and global oil supplies.

Western officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing private assessments, said Iran still has the capacity to manufacture weapons and rebuild its arsenal. One official said Tehran remains well-stocked with ballistic missiles and certain anti-ship weapons and can produce additional supplies relatively quickly.

The assessment suggests that, although US and Israeli bombing has damaged Iran’s military infrastructure, it has not eliminated the country’s ability to manufacture weapons. Russia is also providing missiles to Iran, according to one Western official, echoing a separate assessment made in June. Russia’s Ministry of Defence did not respond to a request for comment.

The findings contrast with statements from US President Donald Trump and senior members of his administration, who have repeatedly described Iran’s military capabilities as severely degraded.

Earlier this year, Trump said Iran’s military was “totally destroyed”. On September 30, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said American strikes had eliminated Iran’s “military industrial capacity” and “their entire defense base”.

Iran’s surviving production capabilities could allow it to rebuild its missile forces if Washington resumes its air campaign. Trump said in a social media post on Thursday that he would not attack Iran before the US midterm elections in November, leaving Tehran additional time to replenish its arsenal.

Trump had previously raised the possibility of intensifying military strikes after the elections, amid a surge in attacks on commercial shipping. Delaying further action could also help the administration avoid putting additional upward pressure on oil prices immediately before voters go to the polls.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly rejected the assessment that Iran had retained significant military capabilities.

“First, President Trump obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer,” Kelly said in a statement, referring to US strikes against Iran’s nuclear programme last year. “Then, Operation Epic Fury successfully destroyed the conventional shield that Iran sought to create over a nuclear program, including their ballistic missiles, production facilities, and navy.”

In a separate version of the report, the White House and Pentagon were said not to have immediately responded to requests for comment.

Western intelligence assessments indicate that Iran retains enough firepower to retaliate if Washington resumes airstrikes. With its economy under pressure from a US Navy blockade of Iranian oil exports and the conflict showing little sign of a decisive outcome, Tehran could increasingly rely on asymmetric warfare to inflict costs on its more powerful adversaries.

The US-Israeli air campaign is believed to have severely degraded much of Iran’s prewar missile manufacturing capacity over the longer term, according to a report by Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst and visiting research fellow at King’s College London.

However, the extent of the damage and the number of weapons Iran still possesses remain uncertain. Israel estimated that Iran had approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles before the war, while Western intelligence assessments as recently as June indicated that Tehran retained around three-quarters of its prewar munitions.

Iran has launched more than 4,000 Shahed propeller-driven cruise missiles and at least 2,000 ballistic missiles since the conflict began on February 28, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis of publicly available data.

The lull in major US attacks has provided Iran with an opportunity to recover and rebuild as it prepares for another round of fighting, said Becca Wasser, defence lead at Bloomberg Economics.

Wasser warned that the pattern could lead to a prolonged conflict in which neither side has a clear advantage, as Iran attempts to restore its capabilities while the US and Israel seek to prevent it from doing so.

William Alberque, a Europe-based senior fellow at the Pacific Forum, said Iran may have fewer advanced weapons available but has spent years stockpiling cruise missiles for itself and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement.

“There is probably less high-end stuff available, but they’ve been stockpiling cruise missiles for themselves and the Houthis for years, and hiding them,” Alberque said. “I’d guess with a fair bit of confidence that we haven’t seen the tip of the iceberg in terms of anti-ship attacks.”

Concerns over Iran’s remaining weapons stockpiles come as attacks on commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz have increased. The UK Navy reported that at least 10 vessels had been hit in the previous week.

The strait is a critical route for global energy shipments. Although maritime traffic through the waterway has increased, the cost of hiring an oil tanker has climbed to approximately $1.2 million per day, compared with less than $50,000 daily before the war.

Oil prices remain above $100 a barrel, leaving markets vulnerable to further disruption and uncertainty over supplies. Any escalation in attacks on shipping could deepen pressure on energy markets and raise transportation costs.

Regional security concerns have also grown as fighting involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen threatens the kingdom’s energy-export routes.

On Thursday night, Houthi ballistic missiles struck two airports in Saudi Arabia, killing at least three people and wounding dozens, according to the report. The attacks have raised concerns about Saudi Arabia’s ability to rely on an alternative oil-export route through the Red Sea if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faces further disruption.

The developments highlight the interconnected risks facing regional energy infrastructure, maritime trade and countries seeking to maintain access to global oil markets.

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