The Democrats taking the fight to Republican strongholds

Angie Nixon, the Democratic Senate candidate in Florida, left, is introduced at a campaign event at the Little Haiti Cultural Center on 2 October in Miami. Photograph: Lynne Sladky/APView image in fullscreenAngie Nixon, the Democratic Senate candidate in Florida, left, is introduced at a campaign event at the Little Haiti Cultural Center on 2 October in Miami. Photograph: Lynne Sladky/APThe Democrats taking the fight to Republican strongholdsIn Florida, Kansas, Iowa and Texas, Democratic candidates are outperforming the predictions, but both parties may struggle to consolidate gains

This was originally published in The Stakes 2026, a newsletter about the midterm elections. Sign up to get it in your inbox

The most valuable education I received for becoming a political editor was growing up in Florida. During the entirety of the 18 years I lived there, it was a purple state that voted for Barack Obama twice, and while I would not say my community was diverse, the spectrum of political ideology was vast. I had a close friend who kept a life-sized cutout of George W Bush in her bedroom, and another who helped organize Amnesty International fundraisers against landmines. When the state turned deeply Republican in 2016, and remained that way, I continued to harbor a suspicion that it wasn’t the whole story.

Even so, nothing could prepare me for the sheer surprise when Angie Nixon – the state legislator who joined the Democratic Socialists of America running against Alex Vindman, a centrist with national name recognition – won the Democratic primary for Senate in Florida. That shock has continued in the months after, as we see the Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly running neck-and-neck with Republican Byron Donalds, who seemed like a shoo-in just weeks ago. And while Nixon is polling behind her Republican opponent, Ashley Moody, the race is much closer than anyone following Florida politics expected. So much so that the senior progressive senator Bernie Sanders has newly poured millions of dollars from his campaign funds into the state, and the popular congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went to campaign with Nixon last month.

This trend is not limited to Florida. Democrats are overperforming in several Republican-held areas and states across the country, whether it’s Kansas, where a Democratic Senate candidate newly has the edge, or Iowa, where both the governor’s seat and congressional districts could flip. In deep red Texas the focus has been on the Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, but more recently the party’s candidate for governor, Gina Hinojosa, has turned heads, too. Around the country, voters seem eager to wield their political power at a time when Donald Trump sees historic lows in his approval rating.

View image in fullscreenSenator Roger Marshall gestures as JD Vance speaks on 14 September in Olathe, Kansas. Photograph: Mark Schiefelbein/Pool AP/APThe deep dissatisfaction Americans have with the current government is coming into sharp relief as we get closer to election day. Our reporters have heard the frustration at gas stations, at schools and at rallies. People are fed up with the status quo and looking for a way out, even if, as is true in Kansas, it means choosing a party that hasn’t won the seat in almost a hundred years. It doesn’t help that Republicans have chosen a number of openly corrupt and problematic candidates, like Roger Marshall who is running for Senate in Kansas, a doctor who sued thousands of patients, or Texas’s Ken Paxton, a state attorney general with a long record of personal and financial scandal.

This can all be true at this current moment, but there is still a longevity question that both parties will need to answer in the coming years. Midterm elections almost always serve as a check on the White House, but neither party has turned that momentum into long-term gains. In fact, many surveys show that both the Republican and Democratic parties are deeply unpopular. The upcoming election seems to be far more reliant on specific candidates in specific places with the exact right message for their voters – whether that means inviting Barack Obama to rally, or avoiding Kamala Harris altogether. Even if there is a “blue wave” in November, it will require much more work to sustain enthusiasm through the presidential election in 2028 with a unifying message.

With just under four weeks left to go, it remains to be seen whether the Democratic advantage holds, and how decisive a victory the party has if it does. But as a Floridian, I’m reminded by this election that although Americans might be polarized and stratified in filter bubbles, we are still exceedingly capable of making ourselves heard.

The US politics team is hosting a series of reader Q&As leading up to the midterms. Our next live conversation will be on 15 October 2026 at 12pm EDT, with a panel of our business, labor and consumer rights reporters discussing how the US economy could shape midterm election results. Send us your questions here.

double quotation markHere in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now.

It’s a sign of the times when several high-profile Republican candidates are speaking in direct opposition to Donald Trump.

View image in fullscreenMinnesota’s lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, who is running for Senate, speaks at a campaign rally in Minneapolis on 20 July. Photograph: Tim Evans/ReutersWhile the entire top of this newsletter was focused on Democrats performing well in Trumpland, it’s important to note that there are places where Republicans have surprised people too. One of those is Minnesota, where my colleague Rachel Leingang has extensively covered state races. While the Democratic Senate candidate, Peggy Flanagan, is still holding the lead, some have noticed that Republican Michelle Tafoya is making gains in the otherwise Democratic state.

Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, is positioning herself as conservative with some asterisks, such as supporting some abortion rights and criticizing Trump’s actions in the Iran war. It’s notable that national Republicans haven’t invested in her race.

Minnesota has seen deep political turmoil in the past few years, from the federal immigration enforcement raids that killed two American citizens to the murder of a beloved state leader. It is also one of the targets of the Trump administration, which capitalized on a recent statewide fraud investigation. While indicators suggest Flanagan will hold on to the vote, we’ll be watching what impact rural Republican voters have in the state.