Blackout Britain: Why running out of gas isn’t the only threat this winter

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in

Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Membership today.

There have been serious power outages in the UK: the miners’ strikes in the Seventies that resulted in nationwide rationing, the Great Storm of 1987 that killed 18 people and left 1.5 million more without electricity, and the National Grid fault of 2003 that trapped thousands in the London Underground are the worst instances in the nation’s recent history. But, for the most part, we flick a light switch on and just expect everything to work.

That energy shifted a little recently, after reports that Britain risks running out of gas stockpiles by end of winter, which – in a worst case scenario – could lead to rationing, where large industrial users, like power plants, have their supplies restricted.

A new report from Europe’s gas transmission operators said that, if the UK faces a harsh winter, storage facilities could be completely depleted in a matter of months. Meanwhile, EU backup gas storage facilities, which Britain relies on for support when supplies fall short, are also running low. If we import from America, household bills prices will soar even higher.

Although households would most likely be protected from cuts to their gas supply, as it’s complicated to turn on and off, they’d be more likely to experience blackouts due to gas power stations having their supply cut.

This, in combination with the new laws introduced this summer where grid operator Neso was given powers to pull the plug without government authorisation to avoid widespread blackouts when power supplies run low, could mean we’re looking down the barrel of hours long rolling blackouts to prevent total system collapse.

In some sense, the alarming announcement is unsurprising. Last summer, both Spain and Portugal experienced a blackout of unprecedented scale and duration, which left residents plunged into darkness. In the UK this summer, Neso has issued numerous pleas for more power generation to cope with the pressures that this year’s extreme heat has placed on electricity systems. Last month, whistleblowers claimed that Neso “failed to meet the grid security standards put in place to prevent blackouts”. The government later denied these claims.

Paul Ekins, professor of energy and environment policy at University College London, chalks the UK’s energy wobble down to three elements: The country’s transition to clean energy (renewables generated over half of the UK’s power for the last two years), policymakers being so focused on generation that they took their eye off the ball of the modernisation of the grid, and the increasing quantity of AI data centres springing up across the UK, which were reported to be consuming 6 per cent of the UK’s electricity in May.

Ofgem announced in February that more than 140 data centres had come forward seeking grid connections, with some requesting more than 50 gigawatts of capacity. If these plans went ahead, data centres would use more electricity than the entire rest of the country. “I’m not sure how sustainable that is,” says Ekins. “Not just environmentally, but in terms of power.”

The energy regulator is preparing to charge data centre developers a new Data Centre Commitment Fee for grid connections to block some speculative projects, with proposed charges ranging from £237,500 to £712,500 per megawatt.

“If Ofgem says they can have that bit of the grid and then that company never delivers, it’s blocked up that section for everybody else,” says Jim Watson, professor of energy policy and director of the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources. “The commitment fee is testing whether developers are serious when they propose a data centre. Can they put their money where their mouth is?”

Alongside the demands of data centres, the power grid already faces problems with queues for connection from renewable energy projects as we race to reach net zero. “It’s quite remarkable that we now generate more than 50 per cent of our electricity from renewables and get fewer power outages than we did when we were relying on fossil fuels,” points out Ekins. “But when we have a transition – get divorced, move home, change job – there are all sorts of uncertainties we have to navigate. The electricity system’s exactly the same.”

My own feeling is that the problems we’re experiencing are manageable provided that we keep an eye on data centres, which could spiral out of control

One big obstacle is the Scottish boundary bottleneck, which stops surplus wind and renewable energy generated in the north from reaching high-demand areas in the south, where the highest number of data centres are; Slough alone has as many as 40. “We’re currently paying quite a lot of money to turn off renewable power, at times when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining, and electricity demand is not sufficient to absorb all that,” explains Ekins. “The demand in the Highlands is not as great for obvious reasons, so it’s a complex issue.”

Britain has already spent £1bn this year on wasting homegrown wind power, which could’ve provided energy to millions of homes, data from the Wasted Wind tracker showed earlier this month. “The way Britain’s electricity system is run is bonkers,” said Octopus Energy’s chief executive, Greg Jackson, in a statement after Britain passed the £1bn milestone. “You wouldn’t grow tomatoes in your garden, only to bin them and buy expensive, imported ones from the shop,” he said. “So, why are we doing the same thing with electricity?”

By 2030, wasted wind power could generate 6.8 million tonnes of emissions and cost the country £3.5bn, increasing average annual household electricity bills by nearly £200, the financial think tank Carbon Tracker warned in 2023, urging policymakers to prioritise investing in grid modernisation to keep up with wind power advancements.

Electricity superhighways, like Eastern Green Links, are expected to unlock the bottleneck in the next three to seven years, which will enhance energy security and strengthen the grid. “That will enable the mainland of England to not experience these shortages,” Ekins reassures. But Neso seeking permission to inflict emergency power cuts on millions of homes without government permission surely hints there’s something to worry about? “My own feeling is that it’s largely belt and braces,” says Ekins, who adds it “makes sense” for regulatory approval to lessen at a time when Neso’s agility to adapt is required.

Most recently, a pivot was needed after a UK power plant was reportedly shut down for four days as a result of a cyber attack thought to be launched by Iran-linked hackers. The unprecedented attack came just weeks after Anne Keast-Butler, director of the communications intelligence agency GCHQ warned that Russia had also been “relentlessly targeting critical infrastructure” in Britain and Europe.

Countries including Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cuba and South Africa have implemented scheduled power cuts to cope with the hot weather, fuel shortages, subsequent rationing and grid maintenance in recent years, a measure commonly referred to as load shedding.

Scotty Murray, 44, who lives in Johannesburg, says scheduled power outages were first spoken about in South Africa in much the same way they have been in the UK. Small rumblings soon turned into “nothing to worry about” until the “temporary measure” became embedded in the nation’s way of being. “I remember one politician back in 2010 saying load shedding was going to be ‘a thing of the past,’” he says. “We’re now sitting in 2026 and it still happens regularly.”

Simple tasks like food shopping, school projects, and work meetings suddenly require strategising to get sorted while power is on. As such, many households – who can afford to – purchase generators, inverters or solar panels to attain an independent energy supply. All in all, power cuts are estimated to have cost South Africa’s economy R35bn (approximately £1.6m) between 2007 and 2019, which is roughly equivalent to the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the country’s gross domestic product growth. Environmentally, research has found that load shedding, in tandem with outdated wastewater treatment plants, led to increased discharges of untreated sewage, which severely impacted water quality, surrounding coastal and river ecosystems, and jeopardised public health.

“You don’t realise how much you use electricity until it’s gone,” says Murray.

Could this be a look at Britain’s future? “In the UK, it’s very much just planning for worst-case scenarios,” Watson reassures, adding, conceding that the grid company “doesn’t know the precise combination of circumstances” that could lead to a short-notice power outage, so are instead prepping for emergencies, such as large gas stations and wind farms dropping off the system at once.

“Because these things happen fast. In a matter of minutes,” Watson says ominously. “We have a pretty reliable system. The challenge is to keep it that way.”

As warnings pile in from they very gas transmission operators whose shutdown could trigger such an emergency, it appears that Blackout Britain has just gotten one step closer.

Join our commenting forumJoin thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in