Why Mexican drug cartels are expanding their operations into South Africa

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Major Mexican drug cartels are expanding their operations into Africa, including South Africa, by partnering with local criminal groups to establish methamphetamine production facilities and distribution networks, according to Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution’s Initiative on Nonstate Armed Groups.

Speaking to CapeTalk, Felbab-Brown said the expansion by two of Mexico’s most powerful cartels, the Sinaloa Cartel and Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación, was a serious concern.

Her comments come after Mexican nationals were arrested in connection with a major methamphetamine laboratory raid in North West.

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Felbab-Brown said the cartels were not simply establishing branches in South Africa.

Instead, they were seeking out local partners, criminal groups and networks that could help them establish and operate production facilities.

“Their mentality in Africa, and for that matter also in Europe, is to hook up with local partners, recruit local criminal groups, and establish meth production facilities to produce meth,” she said.

According to Felbab-Brown, the Mexican organisations train local cooks and facilitators to produce what she described as “highly potent, very sophisticated Mexican methamphetamine”.

The local networks can then be used for distribution, while the cartels use their own smuggling networks to move methamphetamine beyond the country.

Felbab-Brown identified South Africa’s position as a major trans-shipment hub as one of the reasons it is attractive to international drug networks.

She said this had become even more significant after international legal trade was rerouted away from the Red Sea around Africa following Houthi actions in Yemen from 2023.

“A crucial market, crucial target for the Mexican cartels is Australia and New Zealand. And of course, South Africa lies conveniently en route to those markets,” she said.

But geography is not the only attraction.

South Africa also has a long history of drug trafficking and synthetic drug production, meaning Mexican cartels can tap into existing knowledge and local networks.

Felbab-Brown also pointed to what she described as an often weak and corrupt law-enforcement environment.

The Mexican cartels’ interest in South Africa extends beyond manufacturing and moving methamphetamine, according to Felbab-Brown.

She said the cartels had evolved into what she called “polycrime entities”, involved in both illicit and legal commodities.

“Legal trade provides a convenient cover for the criminal groups to smuggle contraband,” she said, noting that hiding drugs in legitimate cargo was one of the most common smuggling methods.

She said the combination of legal and illegal trade in South Africa provided an environment the Mexican cartels were familiar with and could exploit.

But Felbab-Brown said the cartels were also looking to establish markets within South Africa and elsewhere on the continent.

“The final factor, however, is that the meth production is not just about shipping meth outside. The Mexican cartels are definitely looking to establish local consumption markets in South Africa and in Africa more broadly,” she said.

Could Mexican cartels fuel gang violence?

The expansion could also have implications for violence and governance, particularly in areas where established gang networks already operate.

Felbab-Brown said Mexican cartels typically work through local criminal groups rather than bringing their own assassins or hitmen into countries.

“What we have seen with the Mexican cartels in Latin America, across Latin America, is that they often push local criminal groups that partner with them against each other,” she said.

She pointed to the rivalry between the Sinaloa Cartel and Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación and said the two groups had lined up local actors in countries including Costa Rica, Ecuador and Chile.

That competition, she said, had generated significant violence in parts of the Americas.

“When the cartels come to South Africa, they don’t come with sicarios. They don’t come with hitmen. But there is certainly a risk that the competition between their local proxies, local allies, could amplify violence in places such as Cape Town or in other places where gang warfare, gang violence has been intense,” she said.

She also identified Johannesburg as another potential area of concern.

But Felbab-Brown said the threat was not limited to violence.

She warned that Mexican cartels could also pose a threat by attempting to penetrate institutions and influence officials.

“The second governance threat is that the cartels, especially the Sinaloa cartel, are really master corruptors,” she said.

According to Felbab-Brown, the Sinaloa Cartel has sought to penetrate and influence law enforcement and political actors in Mexico.

She said the cartel’s use of “penetration, infiltration and co-optation” represented another major governance threat in countries where it operates.

For South Africa, she said the combination of established criminal networks, international trade routes, synthetic drug expertise and institutional weaknesses could provide an attractive environment for the expansion of Mexican cartel operations.

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