New El Niño Forecast Reveals Winter Outlook as Event Strengthens

U.S.NewsPoliticsAI PoliticsTechFact CheckSportsGlobalIran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter PlanetAll World NewsLifestyleFamily & ParentingEntertainmentTravelPetsAutomotiveRelationshipsScienceHealthPersonal FinanceBetter WorkplacesReaders ChoiceOpinionMy TurnAll OpinionRankingsHealthCorporate ResponsibilityFinanceProductsEducationWorkAll RankingsWatchThe 1600The Royal ReportUnconventionalFrom The PaddockNewsmakersSocialFacebookInstagramYouTubeRedditTikTokTwitter/XExtraNewslettersDare to DreamEventsEssaysPodcastsVantageInsightsMagazineCEO CircleAnnouncementsLeadershipDev Pragad El Niño is set to continue intensifying throughout the rest of 2026, with chances remaining high for it to become the strongest on record since 1950, according to a new forecast. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said on Thursday that there is a greater than 83 percent chance of a "strong-to-very strong" El Niño event through January-March 2027. The CPC added that the event has a high chance of exceeding the strength of all previous El Niños dating back to 1950. There is a 54 percent chance of this happening between September and November; 83 percent chance for October-December; and 70 percent chance for November-January. "Right now, the event is forecasted to peak during the October-November-December season," Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told Newsweek on Thursday. But L'Heureux noted that some uncertainty remains and the timeline could change. What Is El Niño? El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer waters in the Pacific and is known to influence temperatures and rainfall worldwide. In the U.S., typical El Niño effects can include wetter conditions across the southern U.S., and warmer, drier conditions in the north during winter. "With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed," the CPC noted in its Thursday update. The climate pattern can also help shape the hurricane season, and is associated with more storms in the Pacific but suppressed activity in the Atlantic. "The intensity of the El Niño that is coming on, a very strong, near-record or record El Niño, builds the confidence that we should see a lot more moisture in the southern tier of the nation, unlike what we saw last year and other years prior to that," AccuWeather's lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok told Newsweek on Wednesday. How El Niño Could Affect Winter Snowfall Across US Snowfall is expected to be below normal across much of the northern U.S. this winter, according to a new forecast released by AccuWeather this week. But an early burst of snow in the Sierra Nevada and the central and southern Rockies could also benefit ski resorts and help replenish strained water supplies. Warmer than average conditions across the Northeast and Great Lakes are expected to delay winter's arrival and reduce snowfall in these areas, AccuWeather said. The outlet forecast that New York City could see between 10 and 20 inches of snow, compared with a historical average of 29.8 inches. Chicago could receive 12 to 25 inches, below its average of 38.4 inches, while Boston is forecast to receive 15 to 30 inches, below its average of 49.2 inches. "While we are forecasting below-average snow, it only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities," Pastelok said. "So that is something we have to watch, especially as we get into late January and February."By Joe EdwardsReporter

0ShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberSee more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.El Niño is set to continue intensifying throughout the rest of 2026, with chances remaining high for it to become the strongest on record since 1950, according to a new forecast.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said on Thursday that there is a greater than 83 percent chance of a “strong-to-very strong” El Niño event through January-March 2027.

The CPC added that the event has a high chance of exceeding the strength of all previous El Niños dating back to 1950. There is a 54 percent chance of this happening between September and November; 83 percent chance for October-December; and 70 percent chance for November-January.

“Right now, the event is forecasted to peak during the October-November-December season,” Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told Newsweek on Thursday. But L’Heureux noted that some uncertainty remains and the timeline could change.

El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer waters in the Pacific and is known to influence temperatures and rainfall worldwide.

In the U.S., typical El Niño effects can include wetter conditions across the southern U.S., and warmer, drier conditions in the north during winter.

“With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed,” the CPC noted in its Thursday update.

The climate pattern can also help shape the hurricane season, and is associated with more storms in the Pacific but suppressed activity in the Atlantic.

“The intensity of the El Niño that is coming on, a very strong, near-record or record El Niño, builds the confidence that we should see a lot more moisture in the southern tier of the nation, unlike what we saw last year and other years prior to that,” AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok told Newsweek on Wednesday.

Snowfall is expected to be below normal across much of the northern U.S. this winter, according to a new forecast released by AccuWeather this week. But an early burst of snow in the Sierra Nevada and the central and southern Rockies could also benefit ski resorts and help replenish strained water supplies.

Warmer than average conditions across the Northeast and Great Lakes are expected to delay winter’s arrival and reduce snowfall in these areas, AccuWeather said.

The outlet forecast that New York City could see between 10 and 20 inches of snow, compared with a historical average of 29.8 inches. Chicago could receive 12 to 25 inches, below its average of 38.4 inches, while Boston is forecast to receive 15 to 30 inches, below its average of 49.2 inches.

“While we are forecasting below-average snow, it only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities,” Pastelok said. “So that is something we have to watch, especially as we get into late January and February.”