The biggest signs that Trump and the GOP are panicking about the midterms

President Donald Trump during a campaign rally at Pinnacle Bank Expo Center in Grand Island, Nebraska, on October 5, 2026. Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images Donald Trump US elections See all topics Facebook Tweet Email Link Threads Link Copied! Follow Republicans have had reason to worry about the 2026 midterm elections for a while now.

But there are growing signs that their fears are spilling over into panic — and that the GOP, including President Donald Trump, senses things could get really bad.

That doesn’t mean things will turn out that way. And there are plenty of examples of parties overzealously slamming the panic button late in the campaign.

But the Trump-era GOP has generally been a rather sanguine political party, and what we’ve seen in recent days and weeks is anything but.

Trump has insisted Republicans will do well and that the many polls suggesting otherwise are wrong. But his actions increasingly point in a different direction:

The GOP was already playing defense in five states Trump won by between 11 and 16 points, with the most recent addition being Kansas — a state Trump won by 16 points two years ago and that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932.

But adding Nebraska and especially South Carolina to the mix is particularly striking.

And in case you thought Trump’s comments about South Carolina weren’t strategic, the GOP is sending $5 million to the Palmetto State to shore up Graham. Trump allies have also told CNN they are worried about the senator’s polling.

One of the most telling signs of broader GOP panic? Republicans feeling compelled to distance themselves from Trump even in these red areas — whether calling for an end to the Iran war, overhauling their websites to erase mentions of the president, or declining to campaign with Trump.

On Monday, the Houston Chronicle reported that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott won’t appear with Trump when the president visits San Antonio this week. Abbott’s campaign blamed scheduling conflicts, but these are the kinds of events GOP candidates would never have missed once upon a time, especially in a red state.

And indeed, many of the worst signs for the GOP are emanating from Texas.

There’s the awkward ad from Senate nominee Ken Paxton’s estranged wife (who has accused him of infidelity) in which she encourages people to vote Republican. There are the leaked audio clips in which Paxton is heard complaining about Trump and the national GOP hurting his campaign. And on Monday, GOP state Rep. Briscoe Cain posted on X: “If the election were held tomorrow, all state wide races go blue.”

Just to underscore how stunning that would be, Democrats haven’t won any statewide race in Texas since 1994. And this isn’t some moderate Republican spouting off; this is a MAGA lawmaker who tried to help overturn the results of the 2020 election for Trump.

None of this means the GOP is doomed. While there are enough signs in the polling to cause the party to worry, Democrats’ path to the Senate majority still goes through those double-digit Trump states. That’s a high bar to clear.

And, we’ve seen before how parties can spend late money in lower-tier races that don’t wind up being particularly close. Back in 2020, Democrats spent some real money in Kansas, and the GOP sent money to bolster South Carolina; Republicans wound up winning those states by 11 and 10 points, respectively. Even some Democrats are pretty circumspect about their chances in South Carolina this year.

But the increased desperation ahead of November 3 means it could be a long four weeks for the GOP.