Pedro Sánchez is a master of the political comeback. But calling a snap election in Spain may be a gamble too far

Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, attends a press conference at the Moncloa palace, Madrid, on Tuesday. Photograph: Juan Medina/ReutersView image in fullscreenSpain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, attends a press conference at the Moncloa palace, Madrid, on Tuesday. Photograph: Juan Medina/ReutersPedro Sánchez is a master of the political comeback. But calling a snap election in Spain may be a gamble too farPaolo GerbaudoA thriving economy, a model green transition, social advances – Spain’s PM shouldn’t be in trouble. Yet he is, and it’s a lesson for progressives everywhere

To progressives across the west, Spain has been a rare glimmer of hope in a world where far-right parties are increasingly entering government. Under Pedro Sánchez, who became prime minister in 2018, the country has combined a post-Covid economic boom with a bold green energy transition programme, and a pro-immigration stance with a principled opposition to the war agenda of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Yet, at the end of next month, this rare beacon of democratic progress could fall.

On Monday Sánchez called a snap general election, set for 29 November, after two decrees to address the country’s housing crisis were voted down in the lower chamber by politicians from rightwing parties. Speaking from the staircase of the Moncloa palace, Sánchez admitted that his government had not achieved all it had set out to do. “Many injustices remain to be corrected … particularly regarding inequality in public services and access to housing,” he said, adding: “To do more, we need to renew and expand public support.”

Sánchez attempted to pass the legislation after tens of thousands took to the streets to protest against the housing crisis, setting up camps reminiscent of the country’s 15-M anti-austerity movement and the global Occupy movement of 2011. But this explosion of popular anger has been long in the making. According to Spain’s national public opinion research institute Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS), housing has been the country’s top preoccupation since the end of 2024, as a growing number of people struggle to pay rent.

Read moreIn the latest gamble of his long career as master of the political comeback, Sánchez hopes to ride the wave of popular mobilisation to turn public attention away from the Ceuta immigration crisis of July, which rightwing opponents exploited as a demonstration of the government’s failures, and focus attention on the housing crisis, an issue where the left holds stronger political ground.

But this time it will be hard to convince Spaniards that with a new lease of life, the progressive coalition government will solve an issue it had promised to address a long time ago.

Sánchez’s troubles provide useful lessons for progressives all over the world about the difficulties of translating policy achievements into a solid base of political support. They are also a reminder that – as championed by New York’s mayor, Zohran Mamdani – addressing the affordability crisis rather than promising abstract economic growth is of more significance to voters.

In the US midterm election campaign, Republicans are struggling because of rising prices at the gas pump, while in Brazil, rightwing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro just rode to an impressive result in the first round of the presidential elections partly due to discontent with living conditions and household pressures. In Spain, Sánchez’s government is facing similar concerns about affordability, which are obfuscating an otherwise impressive macro-economic performance.

Indeed, seen from the outside, Sánchez’s Spain may appear to be a dazzling political success. The country, which in the 2010s was derided as part of the European Piigs – a term coined to mock Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain as the eurozone’s weakest economies – has become an economic powerhouse. In the years after the Covid pandemic, Spain’s GDP grew at a rate of around 3%, while France, Germany, the UK and Italy grew at a miserly 1% or less.

Spain is also held up as a model of successful green transition, with renewables now generating close to 60% of the country’s power, which has also kept energy bills low and helped insulate the country from the energy shocks caused by international crises. Spain, enabled by significant Chinese investment, is also surprisingly becoming the leading European hub for electric car production, to the dismay of some of the country’s traditional allies.

To these economic and environmental achievements add the significant social improvements achieved under Sánchez, exemplified by the rise in the minimum wage from €736 to €1,184 per month since 2018.

Yet despite these measurable successes, Sánchez’s centre-left coalition is now trailing the right by about 7 percentage points in national polling. That’s partly because while minimum wages have increased, median wages have remained relatively stagnant. But it is real estate that Sánchez’s government has been judged as failing to deliver: during its eight years in power, house prices have risen by an estimated 50%, with rents rising by over 40%.

As climbing the housing ladder becomes prohibitive, a growing number of young people in Spain are forced to pay extortionate rents. This is acutely felt in large urban areas, where the presence of tourists and digital nomads further increases rents, forcing out local residents; this is enabled by private equity firms, who purchase entire blocks to expel local inhabitants in order to create Airbnbs. Sánchez’s government has repeatedly promised to take action on these issues, but its measures have been thwarted by political gridlock or otherwise proven indecisive, partly due to fear of alienating homeowners and antagonising international finance.

If Spain’s centre-left coalition falls, the country could be left with an alliance of the mainstream conservative Partido Popular and the far-right party Vox. It would be the most rightwing Spanish government since Francisco Franco’s dictatorship. The lesson for progressives everywhere is clear: economic growth and ambitious reform will count for little unless working people feel the benefits in their daily lives.

Paolo Gerbaudo is a senior researcher at the faculty of political science and sociology of Complutense University in Madrid and a lead researcher at the Alameda Institute