Netanyahu cannot afford for the Gaza war to end

There is a fundamental contradiction at the heart of the Gaza war: Israel repeatedly speaks of ceasefires, negotiations and security arrangements while military operations continue to claim Palestinian lives and deepen the destruction of an already devastated territory. The contradiction is no longer simply diplomatic. It raises a more consequential question: What interests are being served by the continuation of a war that has failed to produce a durable political settlement?

Recent events make that question increasingly difficult to avoid. Despite the existence of a US-backed ceasefire framework, Israeli forces continue to conduct strikes in Gaza. On Friday, an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City killed at least five Palestinians, including four women, while Israel said it had targeted a Hamas political leader. The incident followed months of deadly violations and counteraccusations, with Israel alleging Hamas activity and Hamas accusing Israel of undermining the ceasefire.

For Palestinians, the distinction between a ceasefire on paper and violence on the ground is meaningless. A ceasefire should end the killing, create space for humanitarian recovery and establish the conditions for reconstruction and political transition. Instead, Gaza remains largely in ruins, Israel continues to control large parts of the territory and reconstruction remains stalled. More than 100,000 Gazans remain displaced outside the Strip, while those who have returned confront destruction, insecurity and a lack of basic infrastructure.

The persistence of the war cannot, however, be understood only through Israel’s stated objective of eliminating Hamas. There is also a domestic political dimension that deserves scrutiny.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu entered the ongoing election campaign under intense pressure over the security failures surrounding Oct. 7, 2023. The central question is no longer simply how the attack happened but who bears responsibility for the catastrophic failures that allowed it to happen. Yet, nearly three years later, Israel still lacks the independent state commission of inquiry demanded by many victims’ families and opposition groups.

Netanyahu has opposed such an inquiry, arguing that it could be biased, while his government has pursued a politically appointed alternative. Critics argue that a politically controlled investigation could limit the ability to establish responsibility at the highest levels. The issue remains politically explosive.

As long as Israel remains consumed by Gaza, hostages and security threats, the national conversation is dominated by war. Questions about intelligence failures, military preparedness, political decisions and governmental responsibility can consequently be pushed behind the immediate demands of national security. This does not prove that Netanyahu is deliberately prolonging military operations solely to avoid accountability. It does, however, demonstrate how continued conflict can serve political interests beyond the battlefield.

There is another paradox. Oct. 7 exposed extraordinary weaknesses in Israel’s security system, yet the government has a powerful incentive to demonstrate that the military has restored deterrence and control. Continued military operations can therefore be presented domestically as evidence of strength, even as the broader strategic picture remains unsettled.

Israel has inflicted enormous damage on Gaza, displaced almost its entire population and maintained military control over large parts of the Strip. Yet Hamas has not disappeared, the hostage issue has remained politically explosive, reconstruction has barely begun and no durable political framework for Gaza’s future has emerged.

Even Israeli military investigations have documented serious failures surrounding Oct. 7, including the lack of preparedness at key positions along the Gaza border. These findings make the demand for accountability harder to dismiss as a political distraction.

The economic cost of continued warfare is also substantial. Israel’s 2026 defense budget was about 184 billion shekels ($60 billion) as the country continues to absorb the costs of multiple conflicts. Yet these costs have not created sufficient political pressure to force an end to military operations.

International pressure has likewise remained inconsistent. Washington has pushed for a political framework and reconstruction, while Israel continues to receive substantial security support. The international community has repeatedly condemned civilian suffering but a lack of meaningful consequences has limited its coercive effect.

This creates an environment in which the Israeli government can calculate that continuing military operations carries fewer immediate political costs than accepting a complete and irreversible transition to a postwar arrangement.

A genuine ceasefire would therefore force questions that the war has repeatedly postponed: Who governs Gaza? Who provides security? Who reconstructs the territory? What happens to Hamas? What happens to Israeli forces? And how can Gaza be integrated into a legitimate Palestinian political framework?

These questions cannot be answered by military force alone. Nor can the Oct. 7 accountability question disappear simply because Israel remains at war. Israeli society has a legitimate right to know how such a failure occurred, whether warnings were ignored, what decisions were made and whether political leaders bear responsibility.

The same principle applies to Gaza. Palestinian civilians cannot be expected to accept an indefinite state of war because Israel continues to invoke security. Palestinian security matters but so do survival, dignity and political self-determination.

And behind these political calculations lies a catastrophe whose consequences will extend far beyond the present generation. Gaza’s children are growing up without the basic conditions of childhood. Their education has been interrupted, healthcare has been devastated and families have been repeatedly displaced. Schools have been destroyed or turned into shelters, hospitals and medical facilities have been damaged, and countless children have lost parents, relatives and homes.

The damage cannot be measured only in buildings destroyed or lives lost. When children lose years of education, an entire society loses human capital. When healthcare collapses, preventable illnesses and untreated injuries can shape lives for decades. When young people grow up surrounded by displacement, insecurity and uncertainty, the consequences become social and economic as well as psychological.

Even if the guns were to fall silent tomorrow, Gaza would not simply return to normal. A child who has lost years of education cannot recover them through a ceasefire announcement. A destroyed hospital cannot be rebuilt overnight. A family that has lost its home or loved ones cannot return to the life it had before the war.

This is why a ceasefire cannot be treated merely as a pause between military operations. It must be the beginning of a political process that protects civilians, restores education and healthcare, enables reconstruction, establishes legitimate Palestinian governance and provides a credible political horizon.

The real test of a ceasefire is not whether the parties announce it but whether the killing stops, Gaza is allowed to rebuild and its children are finally given the opportunity to become students, professionals, parents and citizens with a future beyond war.

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