Democrats are poised for a win in the midterms — but can they govern?

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) attend an event marking the installation of a plaque commemorating Jan. 6 at the U.S. Capitol on March 25, 2026, in Washington.

With just under one month until the midterm elections, Democrats hold their largest advantage of the cycle.

Indeed, NBC News’s polling average puts Democrats’ generic ballot lead at 9 points, identical to Nate Silver’s tracker and RealClearPolitics’s aggregate. Gamblers agree: Democrats also show a 62 percent chance of sweeping both chambers on prediction site Kalshi.

Moreover, a New York Times analysis of primaries in Senate battleground states underscores that Democrats are considerably more motivated than Republicans. Compared to 2022, as the article notes, Democrats saw higher turnout in 17 of the 22 states with contested primaries for governor or Senate, whereas Republicans saw lower turnout in two-thirds of such contests.

This happened in red and purple states alike. Nearly 600,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans in Michigan. In Texas, Democrats outvoted Republicans by 150,000 votes, a swing of more than 1 million votes versus 2022.

To be sure, the Democrats’ polling leads come from legitimate concerns voters have with Republicans. Inflation continues eroding Americans’ paychecks — consumer prices rose 3.4 percent year over year for August, outpacing wage gains. The national average for gasoline remains above $4.40 per gallon, more than 30 percent higher than a year ago, and diesel prices — crucial for transportation and farming — are at historic highs, with those costs filtering into food and goods.

Finally, mortgage rates continue to rise, keeping homes unaffordable for millions of Americans.

As a result, Americans feel worse about the economy today than at nearly any point on record. September’s consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan fell to its second lowest reading since 1952. And President Trump’s approval rating, at 39 percent overall but just 29 percent among independents, is historically low, per Emerson polling.

Democrats are right to run on these issues, and their lead is earned. The grievances behind it are real and widespread, and the party has correctly diagnosed Republicans’ vulnerabilities.

That said, the question remains: If the Democrats win, what will they do to best position themselves for 2028? Because if the Democrats do win, it will be from collecting protest votes, not from offering solutions.

The data bears this out. According to NBC, a plurality (46 percent) of independents said their midterm vote will be “a signal of opposition to the president.”

That same survey also found that the Democratic Party’s favorability (net negative 21 points) is noticeably worse than Republicans’ net negative 13 points, leading the pollster to concede that Democrats “remain in a terrible position as a brand nationally.”

Consider how unusual that is. Democrats are on the verge of winning one or both chambers, yet voters like Republicans more.

There are emerging signs that Democrats, aware of their branding struggles, are concerned.

Adam Hamilton, Democrats’ Senate nominee in Kansas, recently said he does not want former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigning with him, because she “is not somebody who would win votes here.” Hamilton’s calculation is understandable: He needs crossover votes in a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in more than 90 years.

Other Democrats in red and purple states have echoed those concerns, making for an awkward dynamic highlighting challenges in areas Democrats need to win the presidency.

To that end, Democrats’ advantage partly rests on factors outside their control — Trump, inflation, affordability — yet they have not coherently put forward an agenda addressing these issues, like the Republicans’ 1994 “Contract with America” or Democrats’ “Six for ’06” plan did.

Midterms do not often demand a proactive agenda: Democrats gained 41 House seats in 2018 largely on protecting the Affordable Care Act, and Republicans gained 63 in 2010 due to anger toward then-President Barack Obama.

That said, the ground is different for Democrats in 2026.

There is no true standard bearer or clear direction amid the party’s ideological split, and even winning both chambers won’t allow Democrats to do many of the things they’re campaigning on.

Yes, they will be able to subpoena and stall Trump’s legislative priorities, but he has shown a willingness to go around Congress, and Democrats will be the ones held accountable for a dysfunctional legislature. Voters, having cast ballots over costs and inflation, will judge the new majority against those issues, which Democrats will largely be powerless to address.

If all Democrats have to show for their majority are impeachment hearings by mid-2027, any momentum or “goodwill” will exhaust itself before the 2028 cycle begins. This will be especially true as Trump sinks into lame-duck status and can no longer be either party’s sole unifying force. A majority assembled on someone else’s unpopularity produces no mandate for Democrats.

In that same vein, a victory in November would merely postpone the ideological battle between progressives and moderates, not resolve it.

Ultimately, Democrats are likely to win in November. Frustration with the president should be enough to hand Democrats the Speakers’ gavel, but it won’t hand them the White House in 2028 unless they can tell voters why they’re the right party to lead — not only that the other party can’t be trusted.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”