Brazil heads to runoff as Bolsonaro leads Lula in first round of presidential election

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Brazil’s presidential election will go to the second round after far-right candidate Flavio Bolsonaro narrowly outpolled incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva but failed to secure the majority needed to avoid a runoff.

Mr Bolsonaro took an early lead as the South American nation began reporting results on Sunday afternoon in the first round of a tight election, following a campaign dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of US meddling.

The field of 13 candidates had been led by two clear frontrunners – Mr Lula da Silva, 80, who was seeking a fourth term, and Flavio, the 45-year-old son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

With 99.9 per cent of the votes counted, Mr Bolsonaro had won 47 per cent, compared with 45.1 per cent for the incumbent. Mr Bolsonaro received 56.1m votes to Mr Lula da Silva’s 53.8m.

They will now contest a 25 October runoff.

Early results had shown southern states leaning towards Mr Bolsonaro reporting faster, while votes from Mr Lula da Silva’s northeast stronghold were tallied slower.

Mr Bolsonaro-aligned politicians won several key races, including three seats for members of his family. As many as 34 of the 54 newly elected senators are from the right or the far-right.

Mr Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party emerged with the largest number of governors, senators and federal deputies elected so far, putting it in a strong position to wield influence in Congress.

The runoff will determine whether Brazil joins a wider wave of electoral gains across Latin America by right-wing candidates aligned with US president Donald Trump, or whether Mr Lula da Silva will secure another term despite tensions between his government and Washington over trade and security.

Despite growing worries over Brazil’s public finances and sluggish economic growth, the campaign ⁠had offered meagre policy debate, as both leading candidates skipped the major TV debates.

Addressing his supporters, Mr Bolsonaro said that the result pointed to “the end of an era” for the ruling Workers’ party.

“Lula has fought seven presidential elections. He’s worried about power. I am worried about the future of Brazil,” he said.

While polls right up until Saturday showed ​Mr Lula da Silva would ⁠likely lead the first round but not avoid a runoff, Mr Bolsonaro told journalists earlier in Rio de Janeiro he was confident he could win the presidency in the first round, citing voters’ frustration with his chief opponent.

He was counting on “a protest vote from people who would otherwise vote for another candidate but are opposed to Lula”, he said. “I hope it’s enough to secure a victory in the ⁠first round.”

Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer on her way to vote in Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to get the Workers’ Party out of office.

“I don’t think Flavio is the best candidate, ​but I might decide to ⁠vote for him in the next few minutes,” she said, adding that she ‌wished psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury were a more viable candidate.

Fernando Tempel, 49, a management consultant, told Reuters he was voting for Mr Bolsonaro despite initially planning to vote for Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais state.

On the other hand, Mr Lula da Silva’s allies had warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognise election results if he won, pointing to an aborted effort to send US officials to Brazil.

“What is at stake ‌is the future of Brazil,” the president said earlier after voting in Sao Bernardo do Campo, in Sao Paulo state.

Mr Trump has not formally ‌endorsed a candidate, though he had hosted Mr Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.

Speaking after the results, the incumbent president said: “We have just had a lesson in Brazilian democracy. The result is often unexpected. We can never get everything we want. I confess to you that I was convinced I was going to win the election in the first round. But we have a second round.”

“From tomorrow we will launch a new campaign,” he added, “and in a campaign with only two candidates we will be able to show the difference between our proposals for Brazil.”

Cristiano, 34, a doctor in Brasilia who voted for the president and preferred to withhold his surname told Reuters: “I’m a little worried about everything that’s been happening recently, including internationally. I feel this election has had a lot of outside influence, more than in previous elections.”

“We are confident in our President Lula, who will fight for national sovereignty,” said Pedro Palacio, 45, who was voting in Brasilia alongside his wife, Andreia, and their two sons and two dogs, all of whom wore ⁠outfits supporting the president.

Earlier, Brazil’s electoral court chief Kassio Nunes Marques said in a press conference that “teams monitoring international risks have not identified any risks whatsoever”.

It was reported on Wednesday that Brazilian intelligence officials had briefed a French and German delegation on alleged US and Russian interference before the election. The US has rejected claims of interference in Brazil’s affairs.

Despite falling inequality and unemployment, Mr Lula da Silva has struggled to win over voters grappling with high living costs, heavy household debt and the threat of street crime and more pervasive gang activity.

Mr Bolsonaro had sought to capitalise on cost-of-living concerns, while Mr Lula da Silva had moved to ban online gambling and, as the race tightened, expanded welfare and proposed fresh debt relief for families.

Rising spending and public debt above 82 per cent of GDP have stoked fiscal concerns that Brazil’s next president will need to address. The government lowered its economic growth forecasts for this year and next to 2.0 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively.

“I voted for Brazil to start growing again,” said Marciano de Souza e Silva, a 52-year-old public servant in Brasilia and former Workers’ Party voter who ‌moved right, voting for Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022 and Flavio on Sunday.

“The best social program is one that encourages people to start businesses, to actually produce real wealth,” he said.

Overshadowing the policy debate, a scandal surrounding the now-defunct Banco Master has engulfed much of Brazil’s political class and renewed public anger over corruption.

Daniel Vorcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier ‌this year and accused of a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. The investigation has probed the banker’s ties to ⁠figures from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to Mr Bolsonaro, who is being investigated for money laundering tied to the case by the federal police.

The candidate has denied any wrongdoing, although ⁠he confirmed raising millions of dollars from Vorcaro to make a movie about his father.

The banker’s connections to Mr Moraes, widely perceived as an ally of the president, plunged the court into crisis a month before the vote, creating fresh problems for the president. Mr Moraes has said the case against him is ‌politically motivated for his role in the conviction of the elder ​Bolsonaro.

Congress has gained greater influence in Brazilian politics since the impeachment of ​former president Dilma Rousseff, an ally of Mr Lula da Silva, in 2016, raising the stakes of those legislative races.

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