3 takeaways from our new poll of Latino voters: From the Politics Desk

Add to GoogleKornacki: Inflation & the economy rank as most important issue to Latino voters20:01Get more newsLiveonShareAdd NBC News to GoogleOct. 5, 2026, 6:00 PM EDTBy The Politics DeskWelcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Scott Bland breaks down the key numbers to know from our new national poll of the Latino electorate. Plus, Sahil Kapur dives into Democrats’ lingering divisions over transgender issues.

Latino voters’ swing toward President Donald Trump was one of the defining trends of the 2024 election. Their swing back could define the 2026 midterms, too.

That’s the broad takeaway from the NBC News/Telemundo poll that came out Sunday, which showed Democrats with a 24-point lead among Latino registered voters on a 2026 ballot test. That’s a double-digit turnaround from the 2024 edition of the survey — and it comes after Republicans in Florida and Texas made big redistricting bets on extending the party’s results in the last election.

Here are three big takeaways from the numbers:

The economy is the driving factor. Immigration and border security are still important to many Latino voters, but their top issue is the cost of living, and Trump’s inability to follow through on his campaign promise to lower prices is biting his party. Latino voters gave Trump a 4-percentage-point edge over Kamala Harris in 2024 on who they thought would do a better job handling the economy. Today, they give Democrats a 21-point advantage on the same question.

That’s a big reason almost a quarter (22%) of Latino Trump voters said they’re not planning to back Republicans in the midterms, with 14% choosing Democrats and 8% undecided from that group.

Visceral feelings on immigration. Again, it’s not a leading issue when voters have to rank them, but Latino voters have strong feelings about Trump’s immigration agenda. Two-thirds say his enforcement policies have gone too far. Only 39% approve of his handling of border security and 30% approve on immigration overall.

Meanwhile, 31% of Latino voters say they or someone close to them started carrying ID because of concerns about getting swept up by ICE enforcement operations, and 27% say they know someone who has been deported or detained by ICE since Trump’s second term began.

There were key differences across gender, region and more. Just like in the overall electorate, Latino women lean more Democratic than Latino men. And while the sample was small, Latino voters from Florida were less likely to back Democrats than Latino voters elsewhere — something to keep in mind on election night, when it would be unwise to expect uniform swings from 2024 across different regions.

➡️ Related read: How the shooting death of a Houston father is igniting Latino politics in Texas, by Natasha Korecki

The country’s largest LGBTQ rights group is criticizing some Democrats who are adopting what they see as anti-transgender rhetoric in their campaigns, a point of tension as the party wrestles with how to handle the issue heading into the 2026 election.

They include Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, who said in a recent ad, “I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools because parents know what’s best for their kids, and boys should not play in girls’ sports.”

Human Rights Campaign President Kelley Robinson told reporters today that those candidates are “doing too much and getting too little” with their strategies.

“You’ve got Marcy Kaptur, who not only is bad on the message, but she’s also bad on the policy. I mean, she voted for a bill that would have put forced outing in place nationally. A don’t-say-trans bill, too, right? She’s somebody that hasn’t been with us on either of those sides, so she’s not someone that we’re supporting this cycle,” Robinson said.

Meanwhile, Robinson praised former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who is running again for the Senate in Ohio. Brown has sought to reframe the debate, featuring a voter in an ad who says: “With everything going on, that’s what they’re talking about?”

“Sherrod Brown, on the other hand, I think, did a great job in his response ad that we worked with him pretty closely on — in stating what the laws are in Ohio now and reaffirming his support from the community and then, most importantly, letting voters talk for themselves,” Robinson said.

In light of the criticism, Kaptur campaign spokesperson Kylie Blitzer said in a statement: “Marcy set the record straight for NW Ohio voters on where she stands: giving parents more say in the classroom and ensuring parents, coaches, and local sports associations — not politicians in Washington — set the rules in their communities to ensure girls’ sports stay fair. She is focused on lowering costs and standing up to special interests using their big money and outsized influence to tilt the playing field in their favor.”

A Davis spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not advised 2026 candidates to take any particular approach on trans issues, according to a person familiar with the committee’s thinking, who said it is “supportive of each candidate messaging as they see fit” in their districts while simply encouraging them to “explain to voters where they stand.”

Where the Human Rights Campaign and the Democrats they are criticizing agree is that the GOP attacks are effective if left unanswered. But they disagree over how to answer them.

Robinson argued that the “core failure” of Democrats and Kamala Harris in 2024 was “the lack of a direct response.” She said of 2026: “We’ve given counsel and guidance that’s really very clear. Address the attack head-on, pivot to your values — the things that you want voters to know about.”

A Democratic strategist involved in 2026 races said that is one school of thought, which can be effective in message testing. Another school of thought, said the strategist, is to directly confront the attacks and seek distance on the issue in order to “not look like a typical Democrat.”

The latter approach “works better as your district gets redder,” said the strategist, who was not authorized to discuss internal machinations on the record.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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