The article by Chepkorir Sambu
This article presents a tabular mapping of Kenya’s key political actors, categorised under three constituencies, and their goals and interests. It identifies ethnicity, minorities, “Gen-Zs”, Pentecostal Christianity, and former President Uhuru Kenyatta as crucial factors that will shape election outcomes. The article concludes with tentative projections for 2027, which may change due to the dynamic nature of politics and the history of power-sharing in Kenya.
Introduction
Kenya is scheduled to hold its next general elections in August 2027. Although still more than a year away, informal campaigning is already underway as new political alliances take shape. Next year’s polls will be historically unique. For the first time, Kenya’s electoral landscape will be shaped by three distinct constituencies: the incumbency, traditional opposition elites, and a mobilised Gen-Z demographic acting as a powerful third-way force. At present, the divisions and lack of homogeneity within the latter two constituencies give President William Ruto an advantage as the most organised political actor.
This will also be the first election since 1997 in which Raila Odinga—Kenya’s veteran opposition leader, founder of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and arguably the country’s most consequential political actor—will not feature on the ballot, following his death in October 2025. Raila’s absence, Uhuru Kenyatta’s retirement, and President William Ruto’s bid for a final term collectively signal the gradual decline of the elite-centred political order that has shaped Kenya’s politics for decades.
Constituency Matrix: Mapping the Political Actors
|
Constituency |
Presidential Ticket Structure |
Allied Political Parties |
Key Political Figures |
Objectives & Core Interests |
|
Incumbency |
Candidate: William Ruto Running Mate: Deputy President Kithure Kindiki OR an ODM co-opted candidate |
• United Democratic Alliance (UDA) • Kenya Kwanza Alliance (coalition of partes including UDA) • Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) (Old-guard faction) |
• William Ruto • Kithure Kindiki • Musalia Mudavadi • Moses Wetang’ula • ODM Elites: e.g., Ali Hassan Joho, John Mbadi, Gladys Wanga, Oburu Odinga |
• Secure presidential re-election. • Solidify power-sharing among the ruling UDA, other constituent parties of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, and Kenya’s principal opposition elite (ODM) via a broad-based government coalition. |
|
United Opposition |
Candidate: Undefined Running Mate: Undefined (5 figures have declared competing presidential ambitions) |
• Wiper Party • Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) • People’s Liberation Party (PLP) • Jubilee Party • DAP-Kenya • Linda Mwananchi (Anti-Ruto ODM faction, not a party yet but a loose movement) |
• Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) • Rigathi Gachagua (DCP) • Martha Karua (PLP) • Fred Matiang’i (Jubilee) • Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K) • Edwin Sifuna, Babu Owino, James Orengo (Linda Mwananchi) |
• Unseat President Ruto. • Currently operates as a loose, fluid coalition. • Navigating internal negotiations to settle and rally behind a single consensus candidate. |
|
Gen-Zs |
Candidate: None (Boniface Mwangi has declared his candidacy and some blocs signal strong support for former CJ David Maraga, but no overall Gen-Z candidate) Running Mate: None Leaderless – by design and circumstance |
• Non-homogenous: Anti-party alignment / fragmented across multiple parties. |
• Protest Figures • Some Favoured Figures: Edwin Sifuna, David Maraga (Note: Group prides itself on being leaderless, tribeless, and is highly restive—frequently elevating or demoting figures). |
• Systematically dismantle elite politics and overhaul the broader political culture. • Unseat President Ruto due to harsh socio-economic conditions, severe unemployment, high cost of living, as well as public anger over the government’s handling of protests. • Divided on tactics: some support the United Opposition, while others demand a complete systemic reset. Others may yet vote for Ruto. |
|
Outlier (not a constituency) |
Candidate: David Maraga Running Mate: Undefined |
• United Green Movement |
• David Maraga (Former Chief Justice) |
• Explicitly stands for constitutionalism and rule of law within the political ecosystem. |
Core Factors and Variables
Ethnicity and kingpin politics will still play a major role in determining the successful presidential candidate. Since the #RejectFinanceBill2024 protests, the youth demographic has made significant progress in changing the political narrative from ethnic formations towards issue-based politics. Yet, it will take years for this shift to fully occur. A majority of Kenyan voters are still likely to align with their ethnic blocs and support candidates endorsed by their respective ethnic kingpins.
Secondly, some minority and marginalised majority ethnicities will change their voting patterns in Kenya. President Ruto has focused his political strategy on ostensibly “correcting” historical injustices experienced by peripheral and smaller ethnicities in the arid and semi-arid areas, as well as politically-marginalised majority groups, such as the Luhya. He has strategically appointed members of these communities to senior government positions and directed infrastructure investment towards their regions. Key examples include dualling the Nairobi-Eldoret-Malaba highway, expanding the Standard Gauge Railway from Naivasha to Kisumu and Malaba in Western Kenya, and symbolically holding Madaraka Day celebrations in northern Kenya (Wajir) for the first time since 1963. Segments of these communities are likely to move away from their historically anti-establishment and anti-Kikuyu/Kalenjin political orientation in favour of Ruto.
Thirdly, the youth demographic, commonly referred to as “Gen Z”, will constitute a pivotal electoral constituency. Comprising politically-conscious voters broadly between the ages of 18 and 39, this demographic emerged as a significant political force during the 2024 Finance Bill protests. Their principal grievances include high unemployment, the rising cost of living, corruption, and public debt. They are generally regarded as a major factor behind President Ruto’s declining approval ratings, particularly in the wake of the government’s response to the protests. While they reject ethnic-based and elite-centred politics, their greatest strength—and weakness—lies in their lack of cohesion.
Fourthly, President Uhuru Kenyatta
continues to be involved in shaping Kenya’s political leadership behind the scenes. Although retired, he retains political influence among the Kikuyu and possesses the necessary economic power to make himself an important actor. He is currently backing his former Minister for Interior, Fred Matiang’i. Still, a future political accommodation between Uhuru and Ruto cannot be ruled out.
Finally, President Ruto retains favour among Pentecostal Christians who see him as a man of faith aligned with their values. Pentecostal clergies were instrumental in campaigning for him in 2022, and he rewarded them with positions in sectors such as the National Cohesion and Integration Commission and established a “Faith Diplomacy” docket in the Office of the First Lady.
Concluding Projections
While campaigning is already underway, Kenya’s political landscape is unlikely to crystallise before March 2027, particularly on the opposition side. For now, President William Ruto appears to be the country’s most organised political actor and continues to benefit from the advantages of incumbency. The continued fragmentation of the opposition and the absence of a cohesive Gen-Z political front could further work to his advantage. Nevertheless, voter turnout is likely to be high, reflecting the country’s intensely charged political environment. Protests and elections-related violent like in past occasions can’t be ruled out but will likely be contained in specific urban locations.
