South Africa’s no-show in the Champions Cup has put the pressure on the Bulls, Stormers, and Lions to fly the flag high in the United Rugby Championship quarter-finals, but looking further ahead, it will require a minor miracle for a South African team to win the URC title.
That is because quarter-final success is likely to be followed by away semi-finals.
The quarter-final lineup took shape after the most competitive “race to eight’ in the tournament’s history, with some positions still on the line as the 80-minute mark approached in the last game of the final week, the Lions’ clash with Munster. The Irish team held on for a 24-17 win.
That meant this top eight: Glasgow Warriors (1), Leinster (2), Stormers (3), Bulls (4), Munster (5), Cardiff (6), Lions (7), Connacht (8). The top four teams earned home quarter-finals, and the remaining have to travel.
The Warriors will get the play-offs underway on Friday, May 29, when they host Connacht. This will be followed by three games on Saturday with the Bulls hosting Munster, the Stormers are at home to Cardiff, and defending champions Leinster host the Lions.
A look at that lineup suggests that the first quarterfinal could be the most significant encounter, and it has plenty of relevance for the Bulls.
If we are to predict the other quarters, the smart money would be on Leinster to beat the Lions, the Stormers to beat Cardiff, and the Bulls to beat Munster, but the other quarter, Glasgow-Connacht, is not a gimme for the home team.
Yes, Glasgow are the 2024 champions and topped the log this season, but Connacht have been a team on a mission this season. Last week, they forced their way into the top eight with a strong 26-5 defeat of Edinburgh; the week before, they beat Irish rivals Munster 26-5. Not long ago, they shocked the Stormers in Cape Town and beat Ulster in Belfast.
Importantly, they also boast a 15-10 league defeat of Glasgow this season. Connacht are on a (stated) mission under former England coach Stuart Lancaster to shed their “poor relation” status in Ireland, where they are not regarded as being in the same league as Leinster, Munster and Ulster.
The significance of the Connacht game in Glasgow on Friday is as follows: if Glasgow win and the Bulls beat Munster, the Bulls travel to Glasgow for a semi-final; but if Connacht win, the Bulls host a semi-final against them.
The table-topping Warriors will be favoured to win at home, but don’t be surprised if Connacht do something special. All of Pretoria will be cheering then on Friday night.
Of course, we are being a touch presumptuous about the Munster visit to Loftus Versfeld, but this Bulls team is peaking at the right time. It took them half of the season to work out a game plan that suits their strengths, and five wins in their last six games have been the result (the loss being away to the Warriors).
The Stormers undoubtedly have revenge in mind against Cardiff. The Capetonians are still kicking themselves for blowing a probable No 1 finish on the log with only themselves to blame for unfortunate results against Ulster and Cardiff overseas. That meant they finished third on the log instead of first.
The Welshmen will find the grass of Cape Town very different to their synthetic pitch at the Cardiff Arms Park; they will have a large and vociferous home crowd revving up their heroes, and they surely will find a Stormers team far more clinical than they were overseas.
A Stormers victory will mean a semi-final against the winner of the Leinster-Lions game in Dublin. Strange things can happen in sport, but if the Lions beat the Leinster side doubling as the Ireland national team, it will be the upset of the century.
URC quarter-finals
Friday, May 29
QF1: (1) Glasgow Warriors v (8) Connacht
Venue: Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow, 8.45pm
Saturday, May 30
QF4: (4) Bulls v (5) Munster
Venue: Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria, 1pm
QF3: (3) Stormers v (6) Cardiff
Venue: DHL Stadium, Cape Town, 3.30pm
QF2: (2) Leinster v (7) Lions
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin, 9pm
Semi-finals – Saturday, June 6
SF1: Winner QF1 v Winner QF4
SF2: Winner QF2 v Winner QF3
URC Grand Final – Saturday, June 20
