In a major sign that the “acceleration phase” of the Nigerian economy is gaining traction, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) reported on March 4, 2026, that business confidence has surged to its highest level in over a year. The Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) climbed to 117.2 points in February 2026, up significantly from 105.8 in January.
This recovery marks a critical turning point: for the first time in recent history, all five key sectors tracked by the NESG have moved into expansionary territory (above the 100-point threshold) simultaneously.
Sectoral Performance: The Great Rebound
The February data reveals a synchronized recovery across the economy, led by a massive surge in non-manufacturing and a long-awaited rebound in the trade sector.
| Sector | February Index (Points) | January Index (Points) | Status |
| Non-Manufacturing | 128.9 | 115.3 | Strong Expansion |
| Manufacturing | 121.1 | 115.8 | Expansion |
| Services | 109.2 | 102.1 | Expansion |
| Trade | 108.7 | 92.7 | Rebound from Contraction |
| Agriculture | 104.8 | 99.5 | Entry into Expansion |
Key Drivers: Easing Costs and Stronger Demand
Analysts attribute this “broadly encouraging” month to two primary factors that have plagued Nigerian enterprises throughout 2025:
Moderation of Cost Pressures: The “cost of doing business” sub-index eased to 65.2 points. While costs remain a challenge, the rate of increase has slowed, giving businesses much-needed breathing room.
Input Price Stabilization: Input prices moderated to 84.3 points, likely a result of the National Single Window pilot testing (Article 34) and more stable foreign exchange reserves (Article 37) reducing import-related volatility.
Resilient Consumer Demand: As inflation begins to stabilize (easing to 15.1% in early 2026), consumer purchasing power is slowly returning, particularly benefiting the Trade and Services sectors.
Context: The “Bolaeconometrics” Effect
This spike in confidence validates the optimistic outlooks shared by leaders like Senator Jimoh Ibrahim (Article 35) and Prof. Taiwo Oyedele. The data suggests that the “structured economic reforms”—including subsidy removal and tax harmonization—are starting to translate into measurable business optimism.
Trade’s Sharp Recovery: The jump from 92.7 to 108.7 points is particularly notable, suggesting that merchants are finding ways to navigate the new fiscal landscape.
Agriculture’s Milestone: Crossing the 100-point threshold suggests that initiatives like the AYuTe Africa Challenge and the Green and Climate Bank are creating a more favorable sentiment for agri-entrepreneurs.
Conclusion: A Fragile but Formidable Optimism
While the 117.2-point reading is a cause for celebration, the NESG notes that maintaining this momentum requires continued policy consistency. With the National Single Window set to launch on March 27, there is an expectation that “friction-related” costs will drop further, potentially pushing the BCM even higher in the second quarter of 2026.
