Fresh polling data from National Security Secretariat indicates former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia enters Saturday’s New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primary as clear front runner with 56 per cent delegate support.
Kennedy Agyapong, former Member of Parliament (MP) for Assin Central, trails in distant second with 25 per cent while Bryan Acheampong, MP for Abetifi and former Agriculture Minister, follows with 12 per cent ahead of the January 31 vote.
The National Security polls project Dr Bawumia winning in all regions across Ghana with sole exception of Central Region, where he places close second to Agyapong. Survey suggests about five per cent of delegates remain undecided with remaining two per cent split between former Education Minister Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum and former NPP General Secretary Kwabena Agyapong.
Results appear broadly consistent with some internal and external surveys but point to a drop in support for both top two candidates compared to the party’s last presidential primaries held on November 4, 2023.
In that contest, Vice President Dr Bawumia won NPP’s presidential nomination with 118,210 votes representing 61.47 per cent of total valid votes cast. His closest challenger Kennedy Agyapong, then Assin Central MP, secured 71,996 votes at 37.41 per cent.
Former Agriculture Minister Dr Owusu Afriyie Akoto polled 1,459 votes at 0.76 per cent while former Mampong MP Francis Addai Nimoh obtained 781 votes representing 0.41 per cent.
If current figures hold, both leading candidates from 2023 are projected to record decline in their respective vote shares. Analysts largely attribute this outcome to the entry of Bryan Acheampong into the race.
Since declaring his presidential ambition in July last year, Dr Acheampong appears to be drawing support from both the Bawumia and Agyapong camps, positioning himself as significant factor in shaping the final outcome of the contest.
Projections shared by the Bryan Acheampong campaign with Asaase News diverge sharply from National Security polls and most other surveys. According to figures shared by his team based on what it describes as extensive profiling of majority of delegates, Dr Acheampong is projected to secure 37 per cent of the vote.
The campaign projects Dr Bawumia following closely at 34 per cent and Agyapong in third place with 20 per cent. Acheampong’s team projects about seven per cent of delegates remaining undecided.
However, checks made by Asaase News with random calls to small cross section of delegates suggest a last minute surge is likely to favour Dr Bawumia, which could end up giving him 66 per cent with margin of error below two per cent.
Political analysts caution the final outcome could still be influenced by last minute campaigning which may sway undecided delegates as well as soft supporters. Some suggest this late momentum could either push Dr Bawumia’s share as high as 65 per cent or less likely force the contest into runoff.
There is also speculation that a segment of delegates may favour runoff, viewing it as opportunity for further engagement with candidates and intensified campaigning.
NPP primaries involving more than 211,000 delegates voting at 277 polling centres nationwide are set to be the largest in the party’s history. All five candidates signed a peace pact on January 22, 2026, pledging to accept results and maintain party unity.
Results will be announced at party headquarters in Asylum Down on Saturday evening at 3:00 pm. The ceremony will include announcement of primary results, formal unveiling of the presidential candidate and an address by the flagbearer.
The outcome is widely seen as pivotal in shaping the opposition party’s direction as it prepares for 2028 general elections. NPP lost the 2024 presidential election to National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate John Mahama after eight years in government.
Global InfoAnalytics and several other pollsters have predicted Dr Bawumia victory. Executive Director Musah Danquah says projections are backed by strong data collection across all regions.
Party officials working with Ghana’s Electoral Commission (EC) say measures have been put in place to ensure the vote is free, fair and credible. National Organiser Henry Nana Boakye reiterated NPP’s resolve to uphold democratic principles and deliver transparent contest reflecting the will of delegates.
NPP barred National Security operatives from the presidential primary and tasked Police with sole security role. The party indicated it is focused on ensuring the January 31 primaries promote party unity and boost public confidence.
