2026 is the “Year of the Fire Horse” – a year of speed, ambition, risk-taking and sudden shifts. According to Senior Partner at AB &David, David Ofosu-Dorte, it will be a year when countries and businesses act boldly, not cautiously, and when decisions taken quickly will reshape markets.
Eastern economies — especially China and parts of Asia – are expected to be bullish, aggressive, and expansion-focused, driven by cultural belief in action and momentum.
July 2026: Watch America closely
July will be one of the most important months of 2026. The United States will mark 250 years of independence; a milestone no global empire has crossed without major change.
Ofosu-Dorte says history suggests this could be a turning point, not necessarily the end of American power, but possibly the start of a faster decline or a reset.
Expect symbolism, parades, political tension, and heightened global attention on U.S. leadership and stability.
America keeps military power — but loses global control
The U.S. will remain the world’s strongest military power in 2026. However, its influence over global institutions like the UN and NATO is weakening, largely due to America’s own actions and inward focus.
The expiry of the Strategic Arms Restriction Treaty (START) in 2026, with no replacement, increases uncertainty and risk in global security.
The world moves from one order to five
There will no longer be one dominant global order.
Instead, five different “orders” will shape 2026:
• Military power
• Economic power
• Control of resources
• Population strength
• Digital and AI dominance
These orders will overlap and compete, creating instability but also opportunity.
Economic power shifts away from the U.S.
Economic power is no longer centred only in America.
China has already overtaken the U.S. in purchasing power parity, which measures what money can actually buy.
Ofosu-Dorte maintains that China could become the world’s largest economy by 2030, earlier than many expect.
The dollar weakens — but does not crash
The U.S. dollar is slowly losing its dominance as the world’s reserve currency.
Its share of global reserves has fallen from about 90% to roughly 50% over time.
This explains:
• Rising gold prices, projected to climb towards $5,000
• Greater interest in alternative currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc
• Improved currency stability in some African countries
The warning: if panic selling sets in, the decline could accelerate.
Oil prices will rise again
Oil prices are expected to move above recent stable levels. Renewed tensions between Israel and Iran, continued Russian oil flows to India, and Europe’s weakness will push prices higher.
Energy costs will influence inflation and economic growth in many countries, including Africa.
Population becomes a source of power
Population will matter more than ever in 2026. Africa, China and India each have about 1.4 billion people, together making up more than half of the world’s population.
In a technology-driven world, population equals:
• Market size
• Political influence
• Economic potential
Countries that organise their populations well will benefit most.
Africa’s growth story improves
Africa’s average growth is projected at about 4% in 2026.
Some countries will outperform:
• Ghana: about 5.8%–6%
• Nigeria: about 4.2%
• Kenya: about 5.4%
• Ethiopia: about 7.6%
Uganda stands out, driven by oil, with growth projected even higher.
Ghana: above-average growth, but funding still costly
Ghana is expected to grow faster than the African average in 2026.
However, Ghana like many African countries will still face high borrowing costs due to persistent “Africa risk” perceptions.
Access to capital will improve, but not cheaply.
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Trade shifts from the U.S. to China
Africa–U.S. trade is declining.
AGOA has weakened, with trade volumes falling.
At the same time, Africa–China trade continues to grow, rising sharply in value.
China’s promise of tariff-free access could offer new opportunities, especially for value-added exports like cocoa and coffee.
Digital power will define winners
The digital order will be decisive. Countries that control AI, data, patents, and semiconductors will shape the future economy. China now leads the world in AI patent filings. 2026 could see major breakthroughs in AI or quantum computing.
What this means for businesses
2026 is not a year to wait.
It is a year to:
• Diversify currency exposure
• Watch oil prices closely
• Position for China-Africa trade
• Invest in digital and population-driven markets
• Prepare for volatility, not stability
