As the festive season draws near and families across Ghana prepare to celebrate, it’s a good moment to pause, look back at our journey, and look ahead with hope.
Ghana’s economy has come a long way in 2025. After years of turbulence marked by fiscal stress, inflationary pressures, and debt vulnerabilities, the country has achieved significant stabilisation under the IMF-supported Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program. These gains are encouraging, but they must not lead to complacency. The next phase will determine whether Ghana can consolidate progress and build a resilient, inclusive economy.
2025: A year of stabilisation and recovery
This year has been a turning point. Economic growth rebounded strongly, with real GDP expanding by about 6% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by services, agriculture, and robust gold exports. Inflation, which stood at 23.8% at end-2024, fell to single digits by November, restoring purchasing power and confidence in the cedi.
The fiscal position improved substantially, thanks to disciplined expenditure management and stronger non-oil revenues. A comprehensive audit of 2024 payables was completed in late 2025, leading to a lower fiscal deficit and public debt while enhancing fiscal transparency.
The comprehensive debt restructuring has advanced significantly. After the completion of domestic debt operations and a Eurobond exchange in the previous years, Ghana signed a Memorandum of Understanding with official creditors. These steps, combined with prudent fiscal policy, have eased financing pressures and improved debt sustainability prospects.
Social protection programs, including the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP) and the Ghana School Feeding Programme, were maintained and expanded, ensuring vulnerable households were not left behind.
The Bank of Ghana has steadily built up foreign exchange (FX) reserves, strengthening the country’s ability to cushion external shocks and maintain confidence in the cedi. The introduction of a new FX Operations framework allows the Bank of Ghana to take actions in the currency market in a more transparent and predictable manner.
The framework is built on three main pillars: strengthening FX reserves to build resilience, smoothing excess volatility in the value of the cedi without fixing its rate, and channeling FX inflows such as those from gold exports into the market in a more transparent and market-neutral way.
The government has consistently taken bold steps to fix the energy sector’s finances. The multi-pronged strategy includes adjusting tariffs regularly, clearing legacy arrears with independent power producers, and making cash flows more transparent through the Cash Waterfall Mechanism.
Private sector investment is actively being encouraged, while strict spending controls aim to cut reliance on government support and stop new debts from piling up. These reforms are crucial to keep the lights on and make the sector sustainable for the future.
The recently published IMF Staff Report for the 5th review points out that while Ghana has made good progress in getting the economy back on track, there are still important challenges to tackle. The country needs to keep a close eye on its spending and make sure it doesn’t borrow excessively again, avoiding a return to past mistakes. Most importantly, the government must continue to fight corruption and manage public money wisely, building a trustworthy system that works for everyone.
There are also concerns around regional security. Instability in neighboring countries and cross-border threats can disrupt trade, raise borrowing costs, and strain public resources. At the same time, it is important to ensure that banks and other financial institutions remain strong. These risks make it even more important for Ghana to maintain strong institutions and safeguard economic progress. If these issues are not handled well, the progress made so far could be rolled back, disproportionately impacting the average Ghanaian.
The achievements in 2025 reflect strong policy commitment and broad stakeholder support. They also underscore the benefits of staying the course on reforms.
2026 Outlook: Opportunities and Risks
The outlook for 2026 is positive but not without risks. Growth is projected to remain robust, inflation within the Bank of Ghana’s target band, and external buffers strengthened by continued current account surpluses.
The 2026 budget marks a shift from economic stabilisation to resilience and more inclusive growth. The government targets a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP, showing a commitment to responsible spending and debt management. Key priorities include creating jobs, investing in infrastructure, and supporting social programs. The new VAT Bill and improved digital systems at the Ghana Revenue Administration will help widen the tax base and raise revenues.
At the same time, spending will focus on projects that directly benefit Ghanaians such as roads, energy, and agriculture. The budget also promises to protect vulnerable groups and ensure that public money is used wisely, laying the foundation for a more resilient and inclusive economy.
This positive outlook could be challenged by global commodity price volatility, regional security concerns, and the unfinished process of debt restructuring, which could weigh on confidence. Domestically, the financial sector requires continued vigilance, and governance reforms must accelerate. The gains of 2025 can be reversed if fiscal discipline falters or structural reforms stall.
The Path Forward: Reform, Resilience and Trust
As Ghana prepares to complete the current IMF program in 2026, the real test begins. Program completion is not the finish line, but rather the starting point for a new chapter.
First, reforms must continue. Fiscal responsibility, sound public financial management, and anti-corruption measures are essential for credibility and investor confidence, while avoiding boom-bust spending cycles linked to elections is necessary for lasting stability. Tax administration modernisation, procurement reforms, and governance improvements in state-owned enterprises must remain priorities.
Second, rebuilding trust is critical. Citizens need assurance that public resources are managed transparently and equitably. Businesses need predictable policies. International partners need confidence in Ghana’s long-term commitment to sound economic management. Trust is the foundation for sustainable growth.
Third, resilience must be embedded. The shocks of recent years highlight the need for buffers, including fiscal and external. Diversifying the economy, investing in human capital, and strengthening social safety nets will help Ghana withstand future crises without derailing progress.
Ghana has consistently demonstrated that determined policy action can restore stability and growth. The challenge has always been to sustain these gains beyond IMF programs and translate them into lasting prosperity. With continued reform, renewed trust, and a focus on resilience, Ghana can move beyond stabilisation toward a future of inclusive and sustainable development. The IMF stands ready to support Ghana’s macroeconomic stability and development needs.
The writer is the IMF’s Resident Representative and Head of the Office in Ghana